The most ambitious upgrade to the UK's electricity grid in generations is under way – and it will have an impact on all of us. Contact online >>
The most ambitious upgrade to the UK''s electricity grid in generations is under way – and it will have an impact on all of us.
For almost90 yearsthe UK''s electricity grid has served us well. So well, in fact, that it''s easy to take for granted. We put the kettle on and know it will boil. Flick a switch and there''s light. But with the shift from fossil fuels to cleaner energy, the grid, which we rely on so much in our day-to-day lives, is in need of an upgrade.
That''s because it was originally engineered to connect coal and gas-fired power stations that were built on the coal seams running down the centre of the country. But our reliance on fossil fuels is being replaced by renewable sources of energy, which are generated in large part by offshore windfarms, as well as solar. So significant new infrastructure is needed to connect that renewable energy from where it''s generated to where it''s needed by homes and businesses right across the country.
The Great Grid Upgrade – the largest overhaul of the UK''s electricity transmission grid in generations – represents a significant shift in infrastructure development. Joseph Northwood, Director ofPortfolio Development and Strategy, said: "Over the next decade we will be undertaking one of the biggest ever infrastructure build outs in the UK, with 17 major onshore and offshore projects to deliver. That is the step change required."
We need to buildfive times more electricity transmission infrastructure over the nextsix years than we''ve constructed over the past three decades – something that could provide a serious boost to the economy. According togovernment figures, The Great Grid Upgrade could createas many as 130,000 jobs and contribute up to £11bn to the economy.
"These aren''t just engineering and construction jobs," says Joseph, "We''re going to need a huge range of skills to deliver these projects from design through to delivery – chartered surveyors, planners, IT and environmental professionals, procurement specialists, visual designers, project managers, apprentices and many more."
The wide geographic scope of the upgrades means new jobs will be distributed right across the country. And it''s not just the projects themselves that will stimulate job creation – connecting more renewables to the grid will see new job opportunities in other areas too, such as solar and wind, as well as the automotive sector (through increasing demand for electric vehicles) and heat pump market.
"It also creates an opportunity for the UK to put itself on the map as an economy that is leaning into the green energy transition," says Joseph. "If we develop those skills in the UK, they can be further utilised by other economies as they go through their energy transition."
Replacing expensive imported fossil fuels with cheaper, cleaner, domestic sources of energy will prevent the kind of big hikes in our bills we saw after the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
"When you look at energy bills, the bit that fluctuates most is the commodity, because it''s a finite resource and it is less secure," says Joseph.
"The energy transition will bring that volatile component down. That resilience, the security and diversity of supply, is going to be delivered by this infrastructure and we are working hard to deliver a network that enables this, while delivering a secure, diverse mix of clean energy to our hospitals, schools, homes and businesses."
If we''re to achieve net zero by 2050, as the climate emergency requires us to, millions of UK households and many thousands of businesses will need to adopt new technologies. Joseph said: "Technological evolution and innovation create a demand for energy that has to be catered for."
And these changes could also be good for your finances: the Treasury''s Net Zero Review suggested that the average electricity bill in 2050 for a household with an electric vehicle and a heat pump could bebroadly similar or even lower than the average electricity, heat and transport fuel costs for a household in 2019 with an internal combustion engine vehicle and a gas boiler.
The electrification of heating, transport and industry is expected to result in a rapid increase in demand: by 2050, we could be using twice as much electricity as we do today. The government has set a target of adding up to 50GW of offshore wind to Britain''s energy mix by 2030 and is also targeting a fivefold increase in solar deployment, to 70GW, by 2035.
But we can''t connect these new clean, green sources of supply to the grid without upgrading our electricity infrastructure. Getting new renewable energy projects connected to the grid as quickly as possible will give the UK a much better chance of successfully achieving net zero and bringing bills down.
The Great Grid Upgrade is, in that sense, the very foundation of the country''s energy transition. "The fundamental point of the transition is to sustain and to enhance the environment we live in," said Joseph, "ensuring that it is preserved not only for our generation, but generations to come."
Find out more about The Great Grid Upgrade
Originally published in The Guardian on 5 March 2024. Byline: Duncan Jefferies
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The policy shift toward a net-zero United Kingdom continues to emerge, given strong momentum by the recent 26th United Nations Climate Change conference in Glasgow. With a bold target of a 78 percent reduction in economy-wide greenhouse-gas emissions by 2035, now enshrined in law, and the UK government putting the Green Industrial Revolution at the heart of its plans for a stronger post-COVID-19 economy, there is impetus for change.
Beyond environmental benefits, the energy transition will mean the growth of significant value pools in renewables (in particular, offshore wind), grid, flexibility and operability services, and new downstream. Among industry players, there is excitement about the opportunities within the sector, and investors anticipate a new wave of growth. However, unlocking potential value will not be easy and will involve addressing issues regarding security of supply, costs, demand stimulation, and pressure on returns.
In this article, we draw on modeling contained within the United Kingdom''s Sixth Carbon Budget.1The Sixth Carbon Budget: The UK''s path to net zero, Committee on Climate Change, December 9, 2020. We consider the implications of the Committee on Climate Change''s modeling on the Balanced Net Zero (BNZ) Pathway, the central route to achieving net-zero emissions by 2050. Looking at electricity demand, technology, and the grid, we discuss options available to investors, regulators, policy makers, and energy companies as they consider how best to support the United Kingdom''s transition to net zero.
The BNZ Pathway anticipates a decrease in overall energy demand and a rapid switch away from fossil fuels (Exhibit 1). In this scenario, the majority of UK energy consumption will shift from fossil fuels to electricity (Exhibit 2).
In the BNZ Pathway scenario, electricity will experience a steep reduction in emissions by 2035, to 88 percent below the 2020 baseline, with the carbon intensity of generation falling by 93 percent between 2020 and 2035. Meanwhile, electricity demand is set to increase by approximately 50 percent by 2035 because of a shift from fossil fuels to electricity as the primary fuel in the transport and building sectors.
The expected increase represents a fundamental change in the trajectory of electricity demand, from flatlining over the past 20 years to growth at over 2 percent annually over the next two decades.2Historical Electricity Data: 1920 to 2020 Database, UK Department for Business, Energy & Industrial Strategy, July 29, 2021; The Sixth Carbon Budget, December 2020. Managing the twin objectives of decarbonizing supply and supporting demand growth poses a significant challenge (Exhibit 3).
The shift outlined in the BNZ Pathway described in the Sixth Carbon Budget highlights rapid scaling of new technologies for dispatchable generation (carbon capture and storage and clean hydrogen), likely as much as 7 gigawatts (GW) by 2035. The BNZ Pathway also highlights unprecedented growth of renewable electricity, with offshore wind power set to quadruple to 40 GW by 2030. In addition, there will be a material buildup of nuclear electricity, with 8 GW expected to come online by 2035. Further, new technologies will support grid flexibility and operations on the supply side (for example, synchronous capacitors and batteries) and demand side (such as demand-side response and vehicle-to-grid).
On the demand side, the BNZ Pathway will see nearly 25 million battery-electric vehicles on the road by 2035, and 600,000 heat pumps being installed annually by 2028. In parallel, electricity demand will increase with green hydrogen production. By 2025, 5 GW of low-carbon hydrogen is to be introduced—of which part will be green hydrogen.3The ten point plan for a green industrial revolution, UK Department for Business, Energy & Industrial Strategy, Prime Minister''s Office, Alok Sharma, and Boris Johnson, November 18, 2020. This will also require significant expansion, decentralization, and modernization of the grid to cater to higher demand, shifts in the peak load, and distributed and smaller generation.
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