production, consumption, imports and exports of energy commodities. Electricity data was obtained from Lesotho Highlands Development Authority (LHDA) and Lesotho Electricity Company (LEC), while petroleum fuels data was obtained from Petroleum Fund, Lesotho Defense Force, Matekane Group of Companies, Mission Aviati.
The model correlates well with the actual data, where data exists, and predicts that by 2030 Lesotho will achieve a national electrification rate of 54.2%, with 95% for urban households and 14% for rural households, up from 19.4%, 54.1% and 1.8% respectively in the base year.
The revised and projected electricity demand in this study are carried out using the International Atomic Energy Agency Model for Analysis of Energy Demand (MAED). MAED uses analytical bottom-up variables together with their constituents and their drivers.
electricity was generated in the month of June (61,335.3 kWh) followed by July generation with 61,193.2kWh. The least electricity generation was observed in February with 54,228.8
''The electricity supply industry in Lesotho is dominated by two state owned entities, namely the Lesotho Electricity Company (LEC), which is the monopoly transmitter, distributor and supplier of electricity, and the Lesotho Highlands Development Authority (LHDA), which is the main generator of electricity through its ''Muela Hydro Power Station.
Lesotho electricity demand profile from 2010 to 2030
M. MpholoI, II, *; M. MothalaI, II; L. MohasoaI, III; D. EagerIV; R. ThamaeI, V; T. MolapoI; T. JardineVI
IEnergy Research Centre, National University of Lesotho, Lesotho IILaboratory for Research on the Structure of Matter, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, USA IIILesotho Electricity Company, Maseru, Lesotho IVWood Mackenzie Power and Renewables (Europe), Edinburgh, UK VDepartment of Economics, National University of Lesotho, Lesotho VIEnergy Market and Regulatory Consultants, Edinburgh, UK
Keywords: MAED; energy demand forecast; electrification rate; declining average household consumption.
The results presented in this paper are part of the cost of service study undertaken in 2018 for LEWA, with the raw data obtained from LEC for the period 2000 to 2017. Since 2017 to date, there has not been any significant change in terms of the data on customer movements and consumption. For instance, the average consumption per household continues its decline trajectory, from 1 157 kWh/ year in 2016/17 to 1 117 kWh/year in 2018/19, which goes to corroborate the results discussed further in this paper.
The paper is arranged such that the next section discusses the current demand profile derived from the actual data. Section 3 talks about the methodology used to determine the forecasts which is then followed by the section of the forecast results. Section 4 gives conclusions. The various MAED input tables and data are available separately from the online home page of the article.
2. Current demand profile
The analysis of the recent electricity demand provided by the utility company Lesotho Electricity Company (LEC) (energy purchases, energy sales and peak demand) from 2000 to 2016 is shown in Figure 1. The graph shows that the overall consumption and peak demand have increased over the period (the graph shows a dip in consumption during 2014/15, but it has since continued to grow). More precisely, since 2001/02 the peak demand has increased by 93% (83.5 MW to 161.0 MW) and total consumption by 186% (257.9 GWh to 737.3 GWh).
A key driver for this increase in demand has been the connection of new customers. Figure 2 shows how the LEC customer base has increased by almost a factor of 10 from around 25 000 in 2001/02 to approaching 210 000 in 2016/17, although the average consumption per household has decreased by over 60% during the same period (2 951 to 1 157 kWh/year). The causes for this situation were looked into critically and it was found that affordability for the majority of the households that are recently being connected to the grid is the major reason: it results in very low consumption, hence continually reducing the average consumption (Mpholo et al., 2020).
2.1 Daily load curves and seasonal profiles
Figure 3 shows the daily load curves for typical workdays for five major commercial high voltage (HV) customers. There are around 40 commercial HV customers in total. It shows how some commercial activities have more demand during business hours on weekdays, with a flat and lower profile at weekends. There are similar weekday profiles in summer and winter, although the absolute values of demand are higher in winter.
Figure 4 shows the daily load curves for typical workdays for two major commercial low voltage (LV) customers, of which there are around 200 in total. These profiles are similar between weekdays and weekends and within seasons.
Figure 5 shows the daily load curves for typical workdays for six major industrial high voltage (HV) customers, of which there are around 45 in total. These profiles are quite flat and, on the whole, winter demand is lower than summer.
Figure 6 shows the daily load curves for typical workdays for five major industrial low voltage (LV) customers, of which there are around 175 in total. These profiles have a similar shape throughout the year, with winter demand higher than summer. There is also a distinct drop around the middle of the day - most likely coinciding with staff lunch breaks.
2.2 System load factor
Figure 7 shows a plot of the system load factor for 2015 and 2016. The average system load factor is 59% in both years. The plot shows Lesotho''s maximum demand pattern over the winter months June-July (31st July 2015, 28th July 2016) with minimums over the November-February period.
Figure 8 shows the daily load profile for the major customers in each category: industrial HV (five customers), industrial LV (five customers), commercial HV (four customers) and commercial LV (two customers) against the system peak profile in 2016. The profile is depicted as the proportion of the hourly load to the maximum demand for the day. The plots show that in 2016 the peak load occurred at 10:00 am and, on the whole, the peak load for industrial HV customers (05:00 am) tended not to coincide with the system peak (10:00 am), whereas for other customers a coincidence with the peak did occur.
2.3 Diversity of consumption
Table 2 shows the diversity of consumption by consumer category, with percentage diversity shown in Table 3. The tables show that consumption is quite diverse, although domestic and industrial make up the main share. Overall, the consumption of each category relative to the total is uniform from year to year.
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