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The numbers are based on market demand forecasts for 2021–2030 (refs. 7,8,9,11,13) and 2030–2040 (refs. 10,12) combined with a forecast of market share of cathode chemistries14. All market data and calculations can be found in Source Data Fig. 1. NCA, nickel–cobalt–aluminium.
The SSP is a framework of possible narratives for possible the future of humanity until the year 2100 (ref. 15). Five different possible futures of humanity are described, that is, sustainability (SSP1), middle of the road (SSP2), regional rivalry (SSP3), inequality (SSP4) and fossil fuel (SSP5)15. For the future demand for batteries, scenarios SSP1, SSP2 and SSP5 are the most important10.
To further improve battery cells, new types of battery cells, such as PLIB cells, are being developed. One group of PLIB cells is metal-ion battery cells, in which lithium is replaced by, for example, sodium, magnesium, aluminium or zinc25. Another group of PLIB cells uses lithium metal on the anode side instead of graphite or silicon or silicon/graphite. Some examples include solid state battery (SSB) cells with a sulfidic, oxidic or polymer-based solid electrolyte (SE). Other PLIB cells with lithium metal are lithium/sulfur battery (LSB) and lithium oxygen/air battery (LAB) cells. Within these cell chemistry classes, a wide range of various PLIB types are possible.
To produce today''s LIB cells, calculations of energy consumption for production exist, but they vary extensively. Studies name a range of 30–55 kWhprod per kWhcell of battery cell when considering only the factory production and excluding the material mining and refining31,32,33. A comprehensive comparison of existing and future cell chemistries is currently lacking in the literature. Consequently, how energy consumption of battery cell production will develop, especially after 2030, but currently it is still unknown how this can be decreased by improving the cell chemistries and the production process. This is essential, as energy is a valuable resource and probably will continue to be for the foreseeable future.
In this Analysis, our aim is to determine how much energy is required for the current and future production of LIB and PLIB cells on a battery cell level and on a macro-economic level. Material mining and refining were excluded from this study due to their complexity.
The analysis was conducted as follows: First, it was determined how the energy consumption in production would change relatively if PLIB cells were produced instead of LIB cells. Then it was calculated how much energy is needed to produce 1 kWhcell of cell energy according to the current state of the art. Subsequently, it was analysed how techno-economic effects will affect future energy consumption. On this basis, it was then calculated how much energy is needed to produce 1 kWhcell of cell energy in the future. Finally, it was calculated how much energy is needed to produce the worldwide demand for batteries from today until 2040.
In the first step, we analysed how the energy consumption of a current battery cell production changes when PLIB cells are produced instead of LIB cells. As a reference, an existing LIB factory model was used31,34, which is provided in Supplementary Fig. 1 and Supplementary Table 1. How future PLIB production technology routes might look and which technology routes we used as references in this study are shown in Supplementary Fig. 2. However, to be able to quantify the percentage of the change in energy consumption between LIB and PLIB cell production, we conducted workshops in which experts rated each single production step. Details about this work are provided in Methods and in Supplementary Note 1. The results that were obtained are shown in Fig. 2.
The different sizes of the circles represent the different sums of energy (kWhprod) of electricity and natural gas. Detailed numbers can be found in Source Data Fig. 3. The main bars show the calculated mean value. The error bars show the s.d. resulting from the uncertainties in the expert assessments. Sixty experts were interviewed (n = 60). Any battery materials are excluded from the assessment. EOL, end of line; Tdp, dew point temperature. Wel., welding; Pac., packaging; Fil., electrolyte filling; Clo., closing.
Detailed numbers can be found in Source Data Fig. 4. The main bars show the calculated mean value. The error bars show the s.d. resulting from the uncertainties in the expert assessments. Sixty experts were interviewed (n = 60).
We assumed that battery cell production will be improved markedly in the future, so the demand for energy will decrease. The most important effects are technology improvements, use of heat pumps, learning effects and economies of scale35. The calculations are in Source Data Fig. 5.
a,b, Energy consumption for LIB cell (a) and PLIB cell (b) production. It is assumed that the current energy consumption will be improved substantially by technology improvements, heat pump use, learning effects and economies of scale. Detailed numbers can be found in Source Data Fig. 6. The main bars show the calculated mean value. The error bars show the s.d. resulting from the uncertainties in the expert assessments. Sixty experts were interviewed (n = 60).
Figure 7 shows how energy demand for global production of LIB and PLIB cells probably will develop from today to 2040 in the SSP2 (middle way) scenario. This is done for a mixed, an LFP, an NMX and a PLIB market share scenario. Techno-economic effects, such as technology improvements, the use of heat pumps, learning effects and economies of scale, are considered now. In addition, uncertainties regarding these effects and energy modelling are examined and illustrated by error bars. As a reference, the energy demand forecast is illustrated on the basis of today''s technology level.
The figure shows the forecast once based on today''s technology and know-how level, and once when considering technology improvements, heat pump use and learning effects, as well as economies of scale. This is done for a scenario in which market shares are mixed (based on ref. 14) and for LFP, NCX and PLIB scenarios (based on Xu et al.16). Detailed numbers can be found in Source Data Fig. 7. The main bars show the calculated mean value. The error bars show the s.d. resulting from the uncertainties in the expert assessments. Sixty experts were interviewed (n = 60).
Figure 7 shows that, based on the analysed techno-economic effects, the energy consumption of LIB and PLIB cell production will be notably lower than when extrapolating today''s energy demands in LIB and PLIB cell production to future market demands and shares. According to our calculations, for a mixed scenario in 2040, instead of approximately 130,000 GWhprod (today''s technology extrapolated to the future), 44,600 GWhprod will be necessary for LIB and PLIB cell production per year, excluding material. This is a decrease of 85,400 GWhprod per year or 66% due to the improvement of production.
Figure 7 also shows that in a possible future scenario where PLIBs have even higher market shares, for example, in 2040, only 33,800 GWhprod per year will be necessary for global cell production, which is a further decrease of 10,800 GWhprod compared with the mixed scenario. However, in a mixed scenario, we identified a peak in 2031, where energy demand in LIB and PLIB cell production stops increasing, although the global battery demand is still growing. Afterwards, according to our calculations, even a minor decrease in energy consumption for global LIB and PLIB cell production is possible in the future.
However, Fig. 7 also shows that PLIB cells favour low energy demands in global production, while LFP cells disfavour these. In an NMX scenario the future energy demand is similar to the mixed scenario, where NMX, LFP and PLIB cells have similar market shares in 2040. The GHG emissions resulting from the calculated energy consumption are shown in Supplementary Figs. 4 and 5.
First, we analysed how electrical and natural gas power (P) of production machines will change, when producing PLIB parts instead of LIB parts at a constant material flow rate (Q). For this, an adjustment parameter λj is defined as
λj is obtained once for electrical power and once for natural gas power. To obtain λj, 60 battery cell experts evaluated in workshops the quantitative impact of the changed production infrastructure on required machine power. The workshops were conducted in two phases, with the experts split into two groups: first phase—calculating the relative changes in energy consumption from LIB to PLIB production only for the single defined production step/machine (expert group 1); second phase—reviewing and adapting the results from phase 1 in the context of all obtained results (expert group 2).
Each workshop in the first phase followed the same structure: first, investigating the energy consumption for today''s LIB production; second, identifying the main energy consumers and thermomechanical effects that cause the largest energy consumption; third, identifying how requirements for the machine are changed when producing PLIB components instead of LIB components; fourth, identifying what technical changes in the machine are necessary to be able to process PLIB components; fifth, estimating what these changes to the machine mean in terms of energy consumption; sixth, estimating how reliable the assumptions are.
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