2021 ATB data for concentrating solar power (CSP) are shown above. The Base Year is 2019; thus costs are shown in 2019$. CSP costs in the 2021 ATB are based on cost estimates for CSP components that are available in Version 2020.11.29 of the System Advisor Model .
2024 ATB data for concentrating solar power (CSP) are shown above. The base year is 2022; thus, costs are shown in 2022$. CSP costs in the 2024 ATB are based on cost estimates for CSP components (Kurup et al., 2022a) that are available in Version 2023.12.17 of the System Advisor Model ( SAM ), which details the updates to the SAM cost components.
Concentrating Solar Power. 2022 ATB data for concentrating solar power (CSP) are shown above. The Base Year is 2020; thus, costs are shown in 2020$. CSP costs in the 2022 ATB are based on cost estimates for CSP components (Kurup et al., 2022) that are available in Version 2021.12.02 of the System Advisor Model (SAM) which provided detail the
Average installation cost for concentrated solar power (CSP) worldwide from 2010 to 2023 (in U.S. dollars per kilowatt)
Definitions Parameters Levelized Cost of Energy. Levelized cost of energy (LCOE)
2024 ATB data for concentrating solar power (CSP) are shown above. The
Concentrating Solar Power. 2022 ATB data for concentrating solar power (CSP) are
We track the cost and performance of CSP technologies. Data on installed CSP
2024 ATB data for concentrating solar power (CSP) are shown above. The base year is 2022; thus, costs are shown in 2022$. CSP costs in the 2024 ATB are based on cost estimates for CSP components(Kurup et al., 2022a)that are available in Version 2023.12.17 of the System Advisor Model (SAM), which details the updates to the SAM cost components.Future year projections are informed by the literature, National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) expertise, and technology pathway assessments for reductions in capital expenditures (CAPEX) and operation and maintenance (O&M) costs.
The three scenarios for technology innovation are as follows:
The solar resource is prevalent throughout the United States, but the Southwest is particularly suited to CSP plants. The direct normal irradiance (DNI) resources across the Southwest, which are some of the best in the world, range from 6.0 kilowatt hours/square meters/day (kWh/m2/day) to more than 7.5 kWh/m2/day(Roberts, 2018). The raw resource technical potential of seven states (Arizona, California, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, Utah, and Texas) exceeds 11,000 gigawatts-electric (GWe), which is almost tenfold the current total U.S. electricity generation capacity;some regions in these states have an annual average resource greater than 6.0 kWh/m2/day(Mehos et al., 2009).
For illustration in the ATB, a range of capacity factors calculated in SAMVersion 2023.12.17 is associated with three resource locations in the contiguous United States for three classes of insolation:
Full Categorization of DNI Resource Classes
Source:(Murphy et al., 2019). Starting with the 2021 ATB, Class 1 is the best resource.
In the United States, CSP plants are already found in Arizona, California, Florida, and Nevada. California can be considered the most representative location for new plants in the United States because of the excellent resources there.
CSP research for both current and future advanced technologies is primarily in four main areas: the power block, the receiver, thermal storage, and the solar field. The following table highlights key innovation and research trends for the three ATB technology innovation scenarios.
Summary of Technology Innovations by Scenario (2030)
Technology Description: The supercritical cycle (supercritical carbon dioxide [sCO2]) operates at 565°C with today''s solar salts.
Justification: The DOE Supercritical Transformational Electric Power program and other countries (e.g., China) are researching the use of sCO2 with today''s salts.
Technology Description: Advanced coatings are applied to today''s receiver technology.
Justification: Testing of the coatings has found increased selective absorption and enhanced durability.
Technology Description: Storage tank designs, pumps, and component configurations are improved.
Justification: Engineering studies to improve designs are ongoing.
Technology Description: Improvements in heliostat installations lead to decreases in costs as a result of increased deployment and learning.
Justification: The global pipeline of projects is significant, and projects are currently being constructed.
Projections of CAPEX and O&Mfor future utility-scale CSP plants are based on the three technology innovation scenarios developed for scenario modeling as bounding levels. In general, differences among the scenarios reflect different levels of adoption of innovations. Reductions in technology costs reflect the following cost-reduction opportunities:
These improvements are reflected in the following tables.
Performance Details by Scenario
The scenarios for CSP described above have the following deployment assumptions underlying the cost curves.
Deployment Assumptions for Cost Curves
Estimated Learning Rates for Different Scenarios
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