The COP28 Conference in the United Arab Emirates represented a landmark moment for global energypolicy by pledging to transition away from fossil fuels, triple renewables and double energy efficiencyby 2030. Collectively, more than 130 countries committed to radically transform the energy landscape byadopting IRENA’s 1.5°C Scenario recommendation to triple installed renewable power capacity to at least11 terawatts (TW) by 2030 and to double the energy efficiency improvement rate. This historic agreementbrings a newfound urgency for policy makers, who must now implement the strategies and measuresrequired to facilitate a rapid escalation in renewable energy deployment.
Accelerated deployment of renewable energy, coupled with energy efficiency measures, providesthe most realistic means to reduce global emissions by 43% by 2030, in line with the findings of theIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). While a diverse selection of technologies is essentialto fully decarbonise the energy system by 2050, the urgency of the 2030 deadline reduces the optionsavailable. Only renewable power and energy efficiency measures can be scaled up quickly enough to meetthis approaching milestone. To ensure long-term success, however, this accelerated deployment must becomplemented by continuous innovation and development across a much broader suite of technologies.
COP28 was a watershed moment for the energy transition. The historic decision to transition awayfrom fossil fuels, triple renewable power and double energy efficiency by 2030 is not only timely; itprovides the only means available to align with a 1.5°C trajectory in line with IPCC findings. IRENA haslong advocated this approach in its World Energy Transitions Outlook reports, and while the adoptionof IRENA’s 1.5°C Scenario pathway at COP28 represents a significant step forward, the world requiressober analysis of our progress to date and our priorities for the remaining years of the decade.
There is no time to waste; any delay simply magnifies the challenge. IRENA’s annual monitoring ofprogress towards the 11 terawatts (TW) of renewable power capacity required by 2030 shows thatthe world is still falling short, with less than 480 gigawatts (GW) of new renewable power capacitydeployed in 2023, compared to the required c. 1 000 GW. Consequently, that requirement is nowclimbing towards 1 100 GW of capacity additions each year for the remainder of the decade to keep1.5°C within reach. Hence, the global energy transition remains clearly off track, and the urgency of acourse correction increases. There are no ‘magic bullets’ or shortcuts available; global action must befocused, disciplined and aligned around key priorities.
First, we must overcome the structural and systemic barriers that impede progress by: modernising andexpanding infrastructure; establishing regulatory frameworks and market design fit for the renewablesera; and building institutional and human resource capabilities.
Second, we must speed up the deployment of all technologies in all geographies. Solar and windcontinue to dominate renewables deployment, which remains concentrated in a limited number ofmarkets. The vast majority of developing countries have been left out of the transition, despite theirconsiderable energy requirements and abundant renewable potentials. Meanwhile, public finance isshrinking, underscoring the need for more strategic application and use.
We therefore require a 21st century architecture for international co-operation that ensures everyactor plays their part in a global solution. Multilateral development banks and international financialinstitutions have a critical role to play, given the amount of capital that needs to be allocated to developthe infrastructure that will enable private investment.
We can no longer afford delays or generic statements, nor can we expect others to lead or take action.We have the knowledge, the technology and the means to correct our course; we are fully equipped toadjust the trajectory of the transition. This shift will not only reduce thecarbon footprint of the global energy system but also pave the way toa more inclusive and equitable world. This brief serves as an invitationfor all of us to do more – and to do it faster – under a new model ofco-operation that ensures no one is left behind.
This publication and the material herein are provided “as is”. All reasonable precautions have been takenby IRENA to verify the reliability of the material in this publication. However, neither IRENA nor any ofits officials, agents, data or other third-party content providers, provides a warranty of any kind, eitherexpressed or implied, and they accept no responsibility or liability for any consequence of use of thepublication or material herein.
The information contained herein does not necessarily represent the views of all Members of IRENA. Themention of specific companies or certain projects or products does not imply that they are endorsed orrecommended by IRENA in preference to others of a similar nature that are not mentioned. The designationsemployed, and the presentation of material herein, do not imply the expression of any opinion on the partof IRENA concerning the legal status of any region, country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, orconcerning the delimitation of frontiers or boundaries.
Despite record renewable power capacity additions, progress in the energy transition is insufficientand its trajectory is markedly off course. IRENA’s 1.5°C Scenario, a key element in the underlyingintellectual framework of the Agency’s World Energy Transitions Outlook, shows that nothing short of asystemic, comprehensive transformation of the energy system is required across all sectors (IRENA, 2023a).The latest data show inadequate progress, especially in relation to the tripling of renewable power capacityby 2030, the development of electric vehicles, electrolyser capacity for green hydrogen production and thescaling up of investments in renewable power generation, grids and flexibility (Table 1).
Progress in transport electrification in 2023 fell short of the required pace. Road transport is thesubsector with the highest potential for electrification; under IRENA’s 1.5°C Scenario, the electrification ratein the global transport sector would rise to almost 7% by 2030. Successful launches of new EV models,financial incentives and improving charging infrastructure have been strong drivers; yet the current batteryelectric vehicle (BEV) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV) stock would need to increase from around40 million today to 360 million by 2030, a target that cannot be achieved at current growth rates.
A systemic global energy transition is required to overcome structural barriers impeding progress.Key enablers include the establishment of supporting infrastructure, robust policy frameworks and thedevelopment of institutional and human capacities, backed by scaled-up financing and strong internationalco-operation. A tripling of renewable energy capacity will require conditions conducive to acceleratedprogress, as numerous obstacles persist, particularly in terms of physical infrastructure, policies andregulations, and skills development. Action is therefore needed to:
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