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The battery storage technologies do not calculate LCOE or LCOS, so do not use financial assumptions. Therefore all parameters are the same for the R&D and Markets & Policies Financials cases.
The 2023 ATB represents cost and performance for battery storage across a range of durations (1–8 hours). It represents onlylithium-ion batteries (LIBs) - those with nickel manganese cobalt (NMC) and lithium iron phosphate (LFP) chemistries - at this time, with LFP becoming the primary chemistry for stationary storage starting in 2021. There are a variety of other commercial and emerging energy storage technologies; as costs are characterized to the same degree as LIBs, they will be added to future editions of the ATB.
Base year costs for commercial and industrial BESS are based on NREL''s bottom-up BESS cost model using the data and methodology of(Ramasamy et al., 2022), who estimated costs for a300-kWDCstand-alone BESS with four hours of storage. We use the same model and methodology, but we do not restrict the power or energy capacity of the BESS.(Ramasamy et al., 2022)assumed an inverter/storage ratio of 1.67 based on guidance from(Denholm et al., 2017). We adopt this assumption, too.
Key modeling assumptions and inputs are shown in Table 1. Because we do not have battery costs that are specific to commercial and industrial BESS, we use the battery pack costs from(Ramasamy et al., 2022), which vary depending on the battery duration. These battery costs are close to our assumptions for battery pack costs for residential BESS at low storage durations and for utility-scale battery costs for utility-scale BESS at long durations. The underlying battery costs in(Ramasamy et al., 2022)come from(BNEF, 2019a)and should be consistent with battery cost assumptions for the residential and utility-scale markets.
Table 1. Commercial and Industrial LIB Energy Storage Systems: 2022 Cost Benchmark Model Inputs and Assumptions (2021 USD)
100–2,000 kWDC power capacity
We also consider the installation of commercial BESS systems at varying levels of duration (Figure 1). Costs come from NREL''s bottom-up PV cost model(Ramasamy et al., 2022). As shown, the cost per kilowatt-hour is lowered dramatically with additional duration. Therefore, accurately estimating the needed duration in commercial applications is critical to determining the total system cost.
Figure 1. Estimated costs of commercial stand-alone BESS using NREL bottom-up model (2022 benchmark data in 2021$US)
Available cost data and projections for distributed battery storage are very limited. Therefore, the battery cost and performance projections in the 2023 ATB are based on the same literature review as that done for the utility-scale and residential battery cost projections: battery cost and performance projections in the 2023 ATB are based on a literature review of 14 sources published in 2021 or 2022, as described by Cole and Karmakar(Cole and Karmakar, 2023). Three projections for 2022 to 2050 are developed for scenario modeling based on this literature.
Scenario assumptions for commercial and industrial BESS were derived using a literature review, and are not based on learning curves or deployment projections.
For a 600kW 4-hour battery, the technology-innovation scenarios for commercial-scale BESS described above result in CAPEX reductions of 17% (Conservative Scenario), 36% (Moderate Scenario), and 52% (Advanced Scenario) between 2022 and 2035. The average annual reduction rates are 1.4% (Conservative Scenario), 2.8% (Moderate Scenario), and 4.0% (Advanced Scenario).
Between 2035 and 2050, the CAPEX reductions are 4% (0.3% per year average) for the Conservative Scenario, 20% (1.3% per year average) for the Moderate Scenario, and 31% (2.1% per year average) for the Advanced Scenario.
Future cost projections for commercial and industrial BESS and PV+BESS are made using the same methodology as is used for residential BESS. The normalized cost reduction projections for LIB packs used in residential BESS byMongird et al(Mongird et al., 2020)are applied to future battery costs, and cost reductions for other BESS components use the same cost reduction potentials in Figure 2. Costs for commercial and industrial PV systems come from the 2023 ATB Moderate and Advanced scenarios. We could not find projected costs for commercial and industrial BESS in the literature for comparison.
Figure 2. Changes in projected component costs for residential BESS (also used for commercial systems)
Data Source:(BNEF, 2019a)
Definition:The bottom-up cost model documented byRamasamy(Ramasamy et al., 2022)contains detailed cost bins. Though the battery pack is a significant cost portion, it is not the majority of the cost of the battery system. This cost breakdown is different if the battery is part of a hybrid system with solar PV or a stand-alone system. These costs for commercial scale stand-alone battery are demonstrated in Figure 3.
Figure 3. Cost details for commercial building-scale battery systems (300-kW, 4-hour duration)
Current Year (2022): The Current Year (2022) cost breakdown is taken from(Ramasamy et al., 2022)and is in 2021 USD.
Within theATB Dataspreadsheet, costs are separated into energy and power cost estimates, which allows capital costs to be constructed for durations other than 4 hours according to the following equation:
For more information about the power versus energy cost breakdown, seeCole and Frazier(Cole and Frazier, 2020). For items included in CAPEX, see Table 2 below.
Table 2. Components of CAPEX
Base Year:(Cole and Karmakar, 2023)assume no variableO&M(VOM) costs . All operating costs are instead represented using fixed O&M (FOM) costs. In the 2023 ATB, FOM is defined as the value needed to compensate for degradation to enable the battery system to operate at its rated capacity throughout throughout its 15-year lifetime. FOM costs are estimated at 2.5% of the capital costs in $/kW. Items included in O&M are shown in Table 3.
Table 3. Components of O&M Costs
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