Reflecting on recent market trends, the cost of lithium carbonate and ESS bidding prices have remained at a low point, fostering an advantageous environment for heightened ESS demand. Although the ESS market is currently in its off-season, January witnessed growth in domestic ESS tender projects, and February saw an upswing in utility-level solar installations. Notably, with global interest rate reductions being implemented, there''s anticipation that the demand for ESS will experience a significant surge.
In the realm of international markets, the EU Council and the European Parliament have clinched a tentative agreement to establish a framework of measures aimed at fortifying Europe''s net-zero technology products manufacturing ecosystem, widely recognized as the ''net-zero industry act'' (NZIA). The act remains aligned with the primary goals initially proposed by the Commission less than a year ago, specifically targeting the achievement of 40% production capacity to meet the EU''s strategic technology product demands by 2030. Furthermore, this provisional accord brings forth several enhancements, including streamlined regulations for construction permits, the creation of net-zero industrial valleys, and increased clarity regarding criteria for public procurement and auctioning.
Part of dynamics of global energy storage market:
The UK government''s move to eliminate VAT on home storage systems has officially taken effect, and Alcem, an energy storage company, has been granted approval for a sizable energy storage project boasting a capacity of 1.5GW/3GWh. In Greece, the second round of auctions for long-term operating grants for energy storage projects is now open for bidding, and the average winning bid has seen a notable decrease compared to the previous round.
Down under, the Australian state of Queensland has unveiled its official battery strategy plan, earmarking a substantial investment of 570 million Australian dollars for the local battery industry. Meanwhile, in India, the largest solar battery energy storage systems (BESS) are entering operation. The Solar Energy Corporation of India (SECI) has announced the commissioning of a massive 40MW/120MWh Battery Energy Storage System (BESS) in Rajnandgaon, Chhattisgarh—India''s largest solar-battery project funded by the World Bank. This project is linked with a 155.02MW (DC)/100MW (AC) solar plant.
Solar PV Installations in the Oversea Market
The U.S. added 148.1MW capacity of energy storage installations in January
In January 2024, the United States saw an increase in energy storage installations, adding 148.1MW of capacity. However, this marked an 88% decrease from the previous month''s figure of 1,231MW in December 2023. The decline is attributed to the elevated base of installations towards the end of 2023 and the customary off-season at the beginning of the year. In terms of year-on-year growth, there was a significant surge of 126.8% in grid-connected capacity compared to January 2023, indicating the potential for further expansion.
Examining project locations, there are four new projects related to solar PV installations, with three projects situated in California and one in Texas. Looking ahead, the U.S. has ambitious plans for utility-scale energy storage, targeting an additional 14.6GW capacity in 2024, showcasing a remarkable year-on-year growth of 131.77%.
In the dynamic energy landscape of Europe:
Anticipation is high for a remarkable surge in energy storage installations in the United Kingdom. Recognized as Europe''s most established utility-level energy storage market, the latest edition of the UK''s official future energy vision plan outlines ambitious short-term goals, accompanied by the government''s commitment to introducing incentives fostering further installation growth. Forecasts for 2024 predict a substantial explosion in energy storage installations, with new solar PV installations projected to soar to 7.2GWh—a striking 80% increase compared to the previous year.
January witnessed Germany''s home storage systems adding 55,000 units, contributing a capacity of 0.3GWh. While this marks a 23.7% year-on-year decline, there''s a notable 12.1% uptick from the previous month. Currently in winter, the off-season for solar PV installations, nearly 80% of Germany''s home energy storage and PV solar installations are reported by SolarPower. The utility-level energy storage installations in January were limited to 4.1MWh, reflecting a substantial year-on-year drop of 76.1% and a month-on-month decrease of 74%. Additionally, commercial and industrial (C&I) energy storage installations totaled 13.6MWh, displaying a year-on-year decline of 9.9%, but with a modest month-on-month increase of 3.8%.
In the global realm of new energy transition planning, Europe stands at the forefront. TrendForce anticipates that in 2024, Europe''s new energy storage capacity is set to hit 16.8 GW/30.5 GWh, showcasing an impressive year-on-year growth of 38% and 53%, maintaining its robust upward trajectory.
See the figure below for projections for energy storage installations in Europe in 2024.
Presently, mainstream European countries find themselves grappling with the aftermath of energy storage subsidy-based policies, with many facing budget exhaustion or subsidy retreat. The slowdown in the growth of home energy storage installations is causing a shift in market dynamics, leading to a decline in the dominance of countries where the ESS market is primarily household-focused. On the flip side, the United Kingdom is witnessing a significant uptick in utility-level energy storage capacity. The government tenders and market-based projects fueling utility-level installations contribute to its continued strong growth momentum.
Notably, Germany, Britain, and Italy emerge as the powerhouses dominating the landscape of energy storage installations in Europe.
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While the world strives for energy transition, the war-induced power shortages and energy crisis in Europe in 2022, the mandatory energy storage integration policy in China, and the IRA of the U.S. accentuate the importance and the urgent need for energy storage. Seemingly creating a crisis, lithium price swings catalyzed the industry, prompting manufacturers to hoard cells and place capital more actively, bringing the energy storage industry to new heights. Over this past year, various market trends emerged as the market grew rapidly thanks to increasing business investments, including residential ESS, standalone ESS, sodium-ion batteries, supply chain reshoring, and large-capacity cells.
InfoLink selects some of the major topics in the second half of this year for further analysis:
In more mature markets, business models and supply chains come to fruition, raising barriers to entry and escalating industry competition. Therefore, businesses aim at emerging markets, such as Southeast Asia, the Middle East, South America, and Africa. The PV industry keeps the energy storage demand robust, with the BTM C&I market attracting more attention this year.
Emerging markets could fall further behind, as they have inferior policy and procedure planning, supply chain development, renewable installation progress, grid construction, and infrastructure resources than mature markets, thus needing more time to bring capacity online and face more variables affecting the progress. For instance, policies that emerging markets have announced generally aim to encourage the deployment of renewable energy. There is no clear direction for boosting demand or development of the energy storage industry. The table below shows the target share of renewable energy in North African and Middle Eastern countries.
In China, installed C&I ESS capacity added in June only accounted for 1% of the total addition of installed ESS capacity, indicating the necessity of discreet assessment despite the strong demand and market sentiment.
Source: data compiled by InfoLink
The lithium-ion battery industry witnessed several technological innovations in the first half of this year, including blade battery, blade-like battery, large-capacity cells, big (4XXX) cylindrical battery, system integration optimization, CTC, liquid cooling, immersion cooling, and high-temperature batteries. These technologies will continue advancing in the second half. The most noteworthy ones include:
The application of 280-Ah batteries and big (4XXX) cylindrical batteries in residential ESS.
Distinct disparity between business models of blade cells and large-capacity cells with energy charge of 320 Ah or higher, due to system integration technology development and the localization of production in the U.S.
The rapid development of system integration using batteries with high energy density and technologies allowing cross-scenario system application.
After distributors depleted inventory in the first half of this year, shipments to the residential energy storage market will increase steadily during the high season of renewables in the second half. InfoLink expects the world to ship 35 GWh of cells for residential ESS this year.
Furthermore, the Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Climate Action (BMWK) of Germany published a draft of the Solarpaket I, increasing the threshold for balcony PV systems to apply for simplified grid connection procedures from an output of 600 W to 800 W and setting out goals to add 9 GW, 13 GW, 18 GW, and 22 GW of installed PV capacity each year during 2023 and 2026. The draft has increased confidence and created inelastic demand for the European PV market. As for the energy storage market, the new threshold will boost the demand for small-capacity ESS by 1-3 kWh.
The poor utilization rates of ESS in China highlights efficiency issues, while the backlash against the mandatory energy storage policy reflects profit concerns, both indicating the monotony of current business operation and profit models, which fail to satisfy markets. Thanks to the development of standalone ESS, solar-powered ESS, and the collaboration between traditional and clean electricity grids, the operation of ESS will diversify. Still, it is essential to improve system efficiency through digitization and intellectualization, such as BMS, EMS, VPP, etc., which receive more attention amid recent AI trends.
To get a head start, energy storage enterprises funnel investment into the industry at an impressive pace. However, in developing markets, it is wiser to align business decisions with both industry trends and the progress of each market. Strengthening technological innovation and seeking product differentiation are the only ways to gain a solid footing in the dog-eat-dog competition of the energy storage industry.
Database contains the global lithium-ion battery market supply and demand analysis, focusing on the cell segment in the ESS sector. We compile detailed data on various businesses' capacity, production, and shipments, as well as segmenting the market applications such as FTM, BTM-C&I, and BTM-Residential.
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