The nation's switch to sustainable energy might stop the rise in temperatures, which is primarily due to fuel combustion Contact online >>
The nation''s switch to sustainable energy might stop the rise in temperatures, which is primarily due to fuel combustion
Dar es Salaam. Experts identified the primary driver of climate change as human activity. The majority of these activities involve the combustion of fossil fuels and the conversion of land for deforestation, farming and other land-use modifications like settlement.
The "Theme Report on Energy Transition towards the Achievement of SDC 7 and Net-Zero Emissions of 2021" noted that burning fossil fuels produces carbon dioxide, a greenhouse gas.
The earth becomes warmer due to the greenhouse effects of carbon dioxide, much like a greenhouse is warmer than its surrounds.
The primary contributor to climate change caused by humans is carbon dioxide. It hangs around in the air for a very long period.
The atmosphere retains other greenhouse gases, such nitrous oxide, for a very long time. Only temporary effects are produced by other substances.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has found in yet another study that emissions from fossil fuels are the primary driver of global warming. Fossil fuels (coal, oil, and natural gas) and industry accounted for 89 percent of the world''s carbon emissions in 2018.
A fossil fuel, coal is the dirtiest of them all, contributing more than 0.3 degrees Celsius (C) to the 1C rise in average world temperatures.
This makes it the main contributor to the rise in global temperatures.
The IPCC also noted that burning oil results in significant carbon emissions, accounting for around one-third of global carbon emissions.
As opposed to coal and oil, natural gas is frequently touted as a cleaner energy source. Natural gas, which contributes about one-fifth of all global carbon emissions, is still a fossil fuel.
For this reason, the emphasis is shifting away from using fossil fuels or mitigation resources to slow down the rapid rise in global temperature (climate change).
Tanzania and energy transition
According to 2019 data from the most recent 2020 National Power System Master Plan (PSMP), natural gas accounts for 57 percent of Tanzania''s generation capacity, while hydropower accounts for 37 percent.
These ignite the country''s grid. Off-grid capacity is still available, with liquid fuels providing the majority of the energy, while scattered biomass facilities account for less than one percent of total generation capacity.
The PSMP intends to change that to 28 percent from hydropower, 33 percent from natural gas, 26 percent from coal, and just over 12 percent from wind, solar, and geothermal energy by 2044, but it is unlikely that this combination will be reached. According to economists, renewable energy development outside of hydropower will be constrained. Hydropower and natural gas will continue to dominate, while coal is unlikely to gain significant traction.
According to the Ministry of Energy, by December 2022, the nation will produce 1,777.05 megawatts of power, an increase of 4.87 percent over the 1,694.55 megawatts it had up until September 2022.
" the increase in the capacity of the power plants connected to the grid system has resulted from the inclusion in the National Grid of 90 megawatts of electricity produced at the Kinyerezi I Extension Station" the minister said to the Energy Parliamentary committee on the implementation of the financial year budget for the period of July-December, 2022.
According to the ministry, natural gas accounts for an average of 65 percent of all electricity generated, with the remaining 20 percent coming from other sources like water and other renewable energy.
The Julius Nyerere Hydroelectric Power Project (JNHPP), a Sh6.5 trillion project that will be finished by 2025 and produce 2,115 megawatts, is being built by the government.
A total of 3,892 megawatts will be produced if everything stays the same by that year, with natural gas making up the remaining 30 percent and renewable energy making up 70 percent.
According to Mr Silas Olan''g, the Africa energy transition advisor for the Natural Resource Governance Institute (NRGI), the nation needs a national strategy plan to minimise its reliance on fossil fuels and increase its usage of clean, renewable energy sources.
Olang''s example of two opposing policies began with the PSMP, which continues to suggest that sources like coal should be included to the generation of energy in the 2040 plan. "The focus is energy production but it contradicts with the environmental policy that needs to reduce the use of dirty energy. So we need a common national policy," he said.
He agreed that there are efforts to change, including surveys in geothermal sources and water sources mentioning the JNHPP but he advised on the importance of having energy mix because water depends on rain and rainfall is unpredictable.
The report suggests that in order to advance the energy transition and draw the long-term and short-term investments required, strong climate and clean-energy targets at the national and sub-national levels are crucial within the frameworks of sustainable development and climate priorities.
"Targets must be supported by transparent governance mechanisms that guarantee accountability and boost investor trust," the document reads.
To date, no wind, solar, or geothermal projects supply Tanzania’s national grid, its condition presenting an obstacle to significant renewables development.
Tanzania''s energy transition will be contingent on its own natural resource endowment, the state''s response to global market signals, and grid capacity, but analysts say that renewables other than hydropower will be at best a minor element in the country''s power mix.
While Tanzania has attempted to guide power sector development through a series of Power Sector Master Plans (PSMP), these have not framed actual public and private investment, which remain contingent on political responses to these three issues. Natural gas will dominate the future power mix, despite considerable investment in hydro, and ambitions for coal.
According to 2019 figures, contained in the most recent 2020 PSMP, 57% of generation capacity in Tanzania comes from natural gas, and 37% from hydro. These fire the national grid. Remaining capacity is off-grid, the bulk of which comes from liquid fuels, while less than 1% of generation capacity comes from scattered biomass plants.
By 2044, the PSMP aims to shift that to 28% from hydropower, 33% from natural gas, 26% from coal, and just over 12% from wind, solar, and geothermal, but that mix is unlikely to be achieved. Hydropower and natural gas will continue to dominate, coal is unlikely to take off, and renewables development other than hydropower will be limited, say analysts.
The continued importance of hydro, and the planned emergence of coal reflect the time in which the PSMP was drafted. Finalised in September 2020, it reflected what academic Dr Japhace Poncian describes as the "aggressive resource nationalism" of then-President John Magufuli''s administration.
Buttressing hydropower''s projected share is President Magufuli''s pet project, the Julius Nyerere Hydropower Project (JNHPP), which could more than triple hydropower generation if operating at its full 2115 megawatt (MW) capacity. It was President Magufuli''s flagship industrial development project, fast tracked in spite of concerns over its long term viability in light of climate change, and its environmental impact. Though still a priority, JNHPP is unlikely to be commissioned in 2022 as originally planned.
While JNHPP goes ahead, the current President Samia Suluhu Hasssan''s administration''s more friendly posture towards international capital, and understanding of global markets, has seen the revival of the long proposed Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) project deep sea natural gas resources. Offshore blocks licenced to Equinor and Shell have current resources of 37 trillion cubic feet (tcf), giving Tanzania the potential to become a significant LNG exporter, greatly expand natural gas power generation, and underpin its role as a regional economic and political power.
President Magufuli''s attempts to revise upstream contracts, and a relatively high break-even price, estimated at between $9 and $11 by the Natural Resources Governance Institute, saw talks on a Host Government Agreement for a liquefaction plant stall. Europe''s demand for alternative natural gas sources may mark a structural change in the market that advantages the project. Minister for Energy, January Makamba, told a Host Government Agreement to be finalised by the end May, and a Final Investment Decision in two to three years. If so, this could see production by 2030.
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