Thank you for visiting nature.com. You are using a browser version with limited support for CSS. To obtain the best experience, we recommend you use a more up to date browser (or turn off compatibility mode in Internet Explorer). In the meantime, to ensure continued support, we are displaying the si Contact online >>
Thank you for visiting nature . You are using a browser version with limited support for CSS. To obtain the best experience, we recommend you use a more up to date browser (or turn off compatibility mode in Internet Explorer). In the meantime, to ensure continued support, we are displaying the site without styles and JavaScript.
This research was supported by a gift from United Technologies to the Center for Health and the Global Environment at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health. United Technologies was not involved in the data collection, analysis, or interpretation.
PM, XC, JB contributed to the methodological approach, statistical analyses, and drafting the manuscript. JS, AB, JCL participated in interpretation of data and helped to draft the manuscript. JA conceived and designed the study, and contributed to interpretation of data and drafting the manuscript. All authors read and approved the final manuscript.
Dr. Bernstein reports he serves pro bono on the Board of Directors of the U.S. Green Building Council. The remaining authors declare that they have no conflict of interest.
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi /10.1038/s41370-017-0014-9
However, there remains a substantial ambition gap between announced pledges and what would be required to put the world on a path consistent with the NZE Scenario. This is especially true in the near term: in 2030, 40% more emissions are avoided in the NZE Scenario compared to the APS, in which only around 5% more emissions are avoided than in the STEPS. By 2035, the gap between the NZE Scenario and APS emissions savings narrows to less than a 35% difference. At the same time, the APS net emissions reductions increase to over 10% relative to the STEPS. Current policies are not aligned with a net zero by 2050 pathway, and nor are announced pledges, calling for greater ambition in policy and corporate decision-making.
Chinese passenger LDVs alone accounted for about 35% of global road transport avoided emissions in 2023, an important reminder of the benefits of switching to electric sooner rather than later to unlock greater cumulative CO2 benefits. As other segments and regions catch up, this share falls to 25% in 2035 in the STEPS. By 2035, trucks account for almost 15% of avoided emissions globally, and buses nearly 5%. Early adoption of electric 2/3Ws meant that they accounted for almost 10% of avoided emissions in 2023. While this share falls to 5% by 2035, electric 2/3Ws are providing substantial cumulative emissions savings in the interim.
Today, there are already substantial emissions benefits to switching to EVs when emissions are considered on a lifecycle basis, which includes the emissions associated with the production of the vehicle as well as the well-to-wheel emissions (i.e.well-to-tank and tank-to-wheel emissions). In both the STEPS and APS these benefits increase over time as the electricity mix is decarbonised further.
Globally, in the STEPS, the lifecycle emissions of a medium-size battery electric car are about half of those of an equivalent ICEV that is running on oil-based fuels, more than 40% lower than for an equivalent HEV, and about 30% lower than for a PHEV over 15 years of operation, or around 200000km. These emissions savings increase by around 5 percentage points in the APS, as the grid decarbonises more quickly than in the STEPS. When comparing vehicles purchased in 2035, an ICE car produces almost two-and-a-half times the emissions of a battery electric car in the STEPS, and over three times as many in the APS, over the vehicle lifetime. For a medium-sized car, this equates to 38tCO2‑eq over the ICE car lifetime compared to 15tCO2‑eq for a BEV.1
Power grid decarbonisation around the world is crucial for maximising the environmental benefit of BEVs. In terms of global averages for medium-size vehicles sold in 2023, well-to-tank emissions decrease by 25% to 35% thanks to electricity emissions intensity improvements foreseen in the STEPS and APS. For vehicles purchased in 2035, well-to-tank emissions decrease by 55% (in the STEPS) and 75% (APS) thanks to grid decarbonisation, as the emissions intensity of electricity generation drops 50-65% between 2023 and 2035. However, even without these improvements, BEV emissions would still be about 30% lower than those from ICEVs. Grid decarbonisation in the APS also causes emissions from battery production to fall by about 10% by 2035.
PHEVs purchased in 2023 produce around 30% less emissions than ICEVs over the course of their lifetime in the STEPS, while this gap reaches 35% for vehicles purchased in 2035 in the APS, thanks to further decarbonisation of electricity generation. This analysis assumes that the utility factor (share of kilometres travelled on electricity) of PHEVs is 40%.2 Greater lifecycle emissions savings can be achieved if the utility factor is higher. Misaligned incentives In fact, the rated utility factor for PHEVs with range of 60km is around 65%.
Regionally, the lifecycle emissions benefits of BEVs vary, depending in particular on the local grid emissions intensity, average annual driving distance, and fuel economy of ICEVs. The potential for emissions savings from BEVs is relatively high in the UnitedStates, thanks to the high annual mileage of cars and projected rapid power grid decarbonisation. The emissions intensity of the US average grid mix falls by 70% by 2035 in the STEPS. As a result, the lifecycle emissions of a BEV purchased in the UnitedStates today are around 45%, 60%, and 65% lower than those of a PHEV, HEV and ICEV. Compared to the ICEV, this amounts to a net lifetime savings almost 50tCO2‑eq for a medium-sized BEV.
In China, BEV emissions are about 20%, 30%, and 40% lower compared to PHEV, HEV and ICEV, respectively, equivalent to almost 5 tonnes of CO2‑eq (compared to a PHEV) and up to 10 (compared to an ICEV) for a medium-sized vehicle. Despite the emissions benefits of BEVs being lower in China than in Europe and the UnitedStates, its larger battery electric car fleet – over 16million vehicles compared to over 6.5million in Europe and around 3.5million in the UnitedStates – makes China the leading country for GHG emissions saved through road electrification.
Battery chemistry plays an important role in defining the lifecycle emissions of EV batteries. In order to decarbonise battery manufacturing, policy ambition and concerted action to define common LCA methodologies and improve transparency will be required across the entire battery supply chain. Initiatives like the battery passport are particularly important towards this aim.
Of the two main chemistries currently used, high-nickel NMC and LFP, the emissions per kWh of LFP batteries are about one-third lower than NMC batteries at the pack level. In the context of carbon tariffs, or eligibility rules for EV subsidies based on lifecycle emissions, EV and battery producers might therefore be incentivised to rely more on LFP batteries, which today are almost exclusively produced in China, rather than the more emissions-intensive NMC batteries.
The main source of emissions across the battery lifecycle depends on the chemistry. Critical minerals processing accounts for 55% of total emissions for NMC, compared to 35% for LFP. Battery manufacturing accounts for almost 50% of LFP total emissions, against 15% for NMC. The production of active material for both cathode (NMC or LFP) and anode (graphite) materials is also important, and currently accounts for about 25% of NMC and 15% of LFP emissions.
See Annex B in the downloadable PDF for further details on the assumptions behind this lifecycle analysis.
In this analysis the utility factor is held constant over time and across scenarios.
Electricity carbon emission in this analysis ranges between 400 and 420g/kWh for the different battery supply chain steps.
See Annex B in the downloadable PDF for further details on the assumptions behind this lifecycle analysis.
About 30 kWh energy saving and emission reduction
As the photovoltaic (PV) industry continues to evolve, advancements in 30 kWh energy saving and emission reduction have become critical to optimizing the utilization of renewable energy sources. From innovative battery technologies to intelligent energy management systems, these solutions are transforming the way we store and distribute solar-generated electricity.
When you're looking for the latest and most efficient 30 kWh energy saving and emission reduction for your PV project, our website offers a comprehensive selection of cutting-edge products designed to meet your specific requirements. Whether you're a renewable energy developer, utility company, or commercial enterprise looking to reduce your carbon footprint, we have the solutions to help you harness the full potential of solar energy.
By interacting with our online customer service, you'll gain a deep understanding of the various 30 kWh energy saving and emission reduction featured in our extensive catalog, such as high-efficiency storage batteries and intelligent energy management systems, and how they work together to provide a stable and reliable power supply for your PV projects.
