France: best-selling plug-in electric vehicle models 2023; Best-selling passenger
,58%,2023150。2023,905,626,279。,2019 247,500 500,000,2023 447,000 。
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Key regions: United States, Germany, Netherlands, China, United Kingdom
CO2 emissions exert a profound influence on climate and the environment, fueling the greenhouse effect and contributing significantly to global climate change. Nearly one-fourth of these emissions worldwide can be attributed to the transportation sector. Electric vehicles (EVs) emerge as a promising solution, potentially acting as a carbon-neutral alternative when powered by renewable energy sources. This underscores their pivotal role in mitigating the impact of traditional combustion engine vehicles on the environment.
The Electric Vehicles market includes information about electric vehicles in countries where, according to our sources, a public electric vehicle charging infrastructure is already available. In this context, "public" means that people have unrestricted access to the charging infrastructure. A vehicle can be defined as electric if it is self-contained with a battery or classified as a plug-in hybrid. All key figures shown represent the sales of new cars, and their basic configuration in the respective year. The figures do not include the sale of used vehicles nor adapted equipment for the new cars sold. The prices and revenues shown are accordingly based on the basic models.
The Electric Vehicle market is divided into distinct two distinct markets, namely Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs) and Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEVs). This categorization allows for a nuanced understanding of the market dynamics, considering the specific attributes and market penetration of each electric vehicle type. The emphasis on new car sales and their foundational configurations ensures clarity, while the exclusion of used vehicles and customizations maintains focus on the evolving landscape of electric vehicles.
Preliminary figures show that in July, sales of new energy vehicles surpassed those of ICEs in the Chinese market for the first time with a penetration rate of 50.84%. Previously, this feat was achieved over the course of a two-week period in April, but never across a whole calendar month.
According to preliminary figures from the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA), sales of new energy vehicles during July amounted to 879,000. This is a 37% year-on-year increase and a 3% increase over June sales. Overall passenger car sales, meanwhile, were 1,729,000, which is two percent down year-on-year and on the previous month.
This means that according to the preliminary figures, retail sales of new energy vehicles accounted for 50.84% of the total in July. New energy vehicles are the Chinese government’s term for electric vehicles, including battery electric vehicles (BEV) and plug-in hybrid vehicles (PHEV). It also includes FCEV, but those sales are almost non-existent in China.
Last year, Miao Wei, former Minister of Industry and Information Technology, said at the China Auto Forum in Shanghai that they expect the electric vehicle penetration rate to exceed 50% in 2025.
Back in March, Wang Chuanfu, the CEO of BYD, predicted that NEVs would achieve more than 50% market share within the following three months. It seems that Wang was just one month out with his prediction. The real test, though, remains whether this figure can actually be achieved for the whole of 2024. Analysts have previously predicted that a 50% penetration rate would not be achieved until much later. The Economist Intelligence Unit predicts it will not be achieved until 2028, and the Chinese Federation of Passenger Cars only predicts a 40% penetration rate for 2024.
Currently, the penetration rate for the year to date stands at 43.1%. This is based on cumulative retail sales since the beginning of the year of 11.568 million cars, a year-on-year increase of 2%. Of these, the sales of new energy vehicles have amounted to 4.991 million, which is a 34% year-on-year increase.
What can be extracted from these figures is that not only is there a large increase in the sales of new energy vehicles but a wholesale collapse in the sales of ICE cars. It should be noted that in the Chinese context NEVs mean both fully electric, BEV, cars and plug-in hybrid, PHEVs. China also often uses the term EREV, which stands for extended range EV, where a petrol engine acts merely as a generator, in effect a series hybrid PHEV. Technically, the term NEV also includes other categories such as FCEV, but these account for a negligible amount in the Chinese market.
Final figures which will confirm the historic event are likely to be released later this month by the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA).
The people making these forecasts are not doing well. It’s clear that the penetration rate will be 45% this year, then 50-55% next year, with an additional 10 percentage points year over year after that.
Over the last decade, China has led the race to transition to electric vehicles (EVs). It has been so successful that other countries have made immense progress by adopting its formula: a combination of significant capital investment and a centralized, interventionist approach. This strategy has successfully boosted EV adoption by supporting not only manufacturing, but also nationwide infrastructure development.
China has encouraged the potential of its EV market by gradually introducing financial subsidies in many cities. Thanks to substantial reserves of raw materials for batteries, continuous technological advances, increasingly widespread charging infrastructure, and export efforts by EV manufacturers, China''s EV momentum keeps accelerating.
This article will address the following questions:
As one of the leaders in the EV world, China has successfully expanded its global market share from less than 30% in 2019 to 41.5% in 2022. Its role as the largest EV production base is even stronger, with 7.1 million units, representing 70% of the 2022 global total, made in China.
Within China, EV sales have increased from 16% of the domestic car market in 2021, to 29%, or 6.9 million vehicles, in 2022. The market is segmented into battery-electric and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles. Battery EVs (BEVs) made up nearly 77.9% of sales in 2022. Moreover, there was a remarkable 151.9% YoY surge in plug-in hybrid EV (PHEV) sales.
Currently, passenger cars are more popular than commercial vehicles, accounting for 95.1% of EV sales. The commercial vehicles sector is on the verge of widespread EV adoption, however; more than 30 cities are planning to fully electrify their public transit systems by 2028.
China also dominates the electric two-wheeler and three-wheeler markets. As of 2021, it had 93 million electric two-wheelers, thanks in part to a 2019 technical standard favoring lithium ion batteries. Domestic companies Yadea and Aima account for the majority of lower-end electric scooter sales, followed by Nio. Meanwhile, electric 3-wheelers are popular for goods and service deliveries, accounting for about 90% of urban last-mile deliveries.
The Chinese EV market is projected to continue growing, with an estimated revenue of US $292.1 billion in 2023, and a CAGR of 6.38% from 2023 to 2028. It remains competitive; more than 94 brands offer a total of over 300 EV models at various price points. Domestic brands like BYD lead, with an 81% share, while startups like Xpeng and Nio further intensify competition, solidifying China's EV production dominance.
Like other countries with major EV markets, China is rapidly expanding its EV charging infrastructure; as of August 2022, it accounted for 65% of global public charging points. In May of 2022, China added 87,000 new charging stations, reaching a total of 1.419 million stations.
China's domestic EV industry is well-developed, with many established manufacturers and an extensive supply chain. This has allowed Chinese companies to produce EVs at a competitive cost, making them attractive to consumers from other countries.
Foreign-brand joint ventures, as well as foreign brands such as Tesla with manufacturing facilities in China, have further contributed to the growth of China''s EV export industry. Some Chinese firms, like Geely, also own foreign-based subsidiaries.
China''s fleet market is segmented into government firms, state-owned businesses, public services, taxis, and long-term rental companies.
In keeping with policy interventions, government and state-owned firms feature lower transaction prices, smaller engines, and increased use of domestic brands, with a mandate for 30% EV adoption.
E-buses and e-trucks are flourishing, constituting over 90% of the global e-bus market in 2021. Top 10 e-truck and e-bus manufacturers hold 70% and 85% market share, demonstrating consolidation through economies of scale.
Major cities like Shenzhen, Chengdu, Zhengzhou, and Tangshan are experiencing high adoption of electric buses and trucks, due to policy-driven preferences. About 9.5% of conventional taxis were electric in 2020, and China''s 14th Five-Year Plan aims for 35% EV representation in the taxi fleet by 2025, with local targets in place.
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