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Installed capacity is forecast to increase from 2024 to 2035, at which point thermal power is expected to account for 46% of total installed generation capacity. Coal capacity rose during 2010 to 2023 at a CAGR of 22%. It is expected that coal will grow at a CAGR of 2% during 2023-2035.
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In the central Ninh Thuan province, the epicenter of Vietnam''s solar energy boom, the Trung Nam Group (a Vietnamese conglomerate) recently announced that it would commence the construction of a 450 MW solar farm, which will make it one of the largest in Southeast Asia. The US$593.22 million facility is scheduled to commence generation in Q4 2020, although it is unclear if the COVID-19 pandemic4 has impacted its development schedule.
Other key solar power projects include the 257 MW Hoa Hoi solar power plant. Located in the central coastal province of Phu Yen, it is valued at approximately US$214.35 million. Hoa Hoi was also developed by B. Grimm Power Public Company Limited, as part of a joint venture with Truong Thanh Vietnam Group JSC, and achieved commercial operation in June 2019. In Ninh Thuan Province, AC Energy (the renewable energy platform of Philippine conglomerate Ayala Corporation) and BIM Group of Vietnam developed a 330 MW solar farm that began generating in May 2019. The US$294 million BIM/AC Renewables Solar Farm was AC Energy''s first in Vietnam.
In another recent development, Thai power developer, Super Energy Corporation, announced that it would acquire four solar power assets in Vietnam for approximately US$457 million. Super Energy Group will hold a 100 percent interest in two of the projects and 70 percent and 80 percent interests, respectively, in the other two. The projects formed part of the Loc Ninh solar power cluster, originally developed by EVN. The project has an aggregate installed capacity of 750 MW and is Super Energy Group''s second foray into Vietnamese solar after acquiring Thinh Long Phu Yen Solar Power for US$51.2 million earlier this year.5
There have also been significant developments in rooftop solar in Vietnam. In March, SkyX Solar, a subsidiary of VinaCapital Group, entered into a joint venture agreement with Saigontel to build and operate rooftop solar projects, with an aggregate capacity of over 50 MW across 10 industrial facilities affiliated with Saigontel. Six of the industrial parks are located in the central and southern regions of Vietnam, which have the best conditions for solar power generation in the country.6
The rapid expansion of the solar sector can largely be attributed to the implementation of the Solar Decision, which sets out, among other things, the feed-in tariff (the "Solar FIT") applicable to solar projects (both grid-connected and roof-top based). The Solar FIT mandated:
The Solar FIT exclusively applied to grid-connected projects with solar cell efficiency of more than 16 percent or solar module efficiency of more than 15 percent.
The Solar Decision came into force on June 1, 2017, and expired on June 30, 2019. During that period (particularly throughout 2019), the sector underwent rapid growth as developers sought to take advantage of the Solar FIT. The expiration of the Solar FIT, however, created a degree of uncertainty for prospective investors that the Vietnamese government has finally sought to address with the implementation of Decision No. 13/2020/QD-TTg ("Decision 13") on April 6, 2020, which came into effect on May 22, 2020. The key elements of the Decision 13 are summarized follows:
Projects satisfying the qualification criteria (please see below) will be entitled to the new Solar FIT for a period of 20 years from their respective commercial operations dates. However, for projects located in Ninh Thuan Province, the existing "special policy" (again, see details below) continues to apply. In order to qualify for the new Solar FIT, the criteria set out in earlier MOIT Proposal No. 10170/TTr-BCT ("Proposal 10170") would also continue to apply. Specifically, qualifying projects must be those:
We note that to qualify as having "commenced construction," solar projects had to have obtained/executed each of the following:
Decision 13 states that, in addition to the qualification criteria set out in Proposal 10170, projects seeking to obtain the benefit of the Solar FIT must have solar cell efficiency of greater than 16 percent or module efficiency greater than 15 percent. Projects not satisfying those conditions will have their purchase price for electricity determined by a "competitive mechanism". Although no further clarification has been provided on this point, we understand that it refers to the pilot auction mechanism set out in Proposal 10170 (please see below).
This is an interesting development as, previously, rooftop projects were restricted to selling their electricity solely to EVN. With the implementation of Decision 13, small-scale rooftop developers now have the flexibility to sell to other purchasers not directly connected to the grid and should, in theory, have the right to do so on negotiated contractual terms rather than the terms of the Model Solar PPA.
In order to qualify for the new rooftop Solar FIT (again, as proposed in Proposal 10170), projects must satisfy the following criteria:
In the event that a project does not satisfy the conditions set out above, then the purchase price for the electricity shall be as agreed between the parties. Such sale arrangements do not appear to require use of the Model Solar PPA but we anticipate further clarification from the Vietnamese government in this regard. Note that the existing maximum capacity of 1 MW and voltage of 35 kV will continue to apply in respect of projects looking to obtain the benefit of the rooftop Solar FIT.
Projects located in Ninh Thuan which fail to achieve their commercial operations date on or before December 31, 2021, will receive a FIT to be determined by a "competitive mechanism" and, again, we understand that this relates to the auction mechanism described above.
The model power purchase agreement (the "Model Solar PPA") used in all solar power projects in Vietnam to date was published by Circular No. 16/2017/TT-BCT in September 2017 ("Circular 16"). The publication of the Model Solar PPA was initially met with criticism from international investors and lenders who claimed that the template was not bankable and would result in Vietnam struggling to attract financing for projects in the solar sector. Notwithstanding these concerns, the solar sector has, as highlighted above, undergone a period of rapid development and investor interest remains high, particularly in the context of smaller-scale projects and cash-rich developers who are, generally, less dependent on third-party lending from banks and other financial institutions.
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