Editor's Note, Dec. 14, 2023: This article was updated to use a new global target after the release of the2023 State of Climate Actionreport. The updated data analysis doesn't change the eight countries that have scaled solar and wind energy the fastest, however, it does show that only three of the Contact online >>
Editor''s Note, Dec. 14, 2023: This article was updated to use a new global target after the release of the2023 State of Climate Actionreport. The updated data analysis doesn''t change the eight countries that have scaled solar and wind energy the fastest, however, it does show that only three of the eight countries (Uruguay, Denmark and Lithuania) have had growth rates that exceed what is needed globally from 2022 to 2030.
Renewable energy has grown exponentially over the past two decades thanks to government policy and falling prices,far fasterthan many experts expected. Today, building new solar and onshore wind power on average costs around40% lessthan coal or gas power. These cost declines have helped renewables reach atipping point, meaning that the transition away from fossil fuels appears difficult to reverse.
But even if the shift to renewables is becoming inevitable, the crucial question is whether the world can ensure it occurs fast enough to limit global warming and meet goals set in the international Paris Agreement on climate change. As of 2022, solar made up 4.5% of global electricity generation and wind made up 7.5%, for a total of 12%. According to theState of Climate Action 2023 report, solar and wind togetherneed to make up 57% to 78% of the global electricity mix by 2030 for the world to be on track for a net-zero emissions future. The range depends on how much other zero-carbon electricity sources, like nuclear power or hydropower, are deployed.
Increasing solar and wind generation from 12% to more than 57%by 2030 requires a rapid pace of change, but three countries have proven it''s possible.Uruguay, Denmark, and Lithuania have all grown solar and wind over a span of five years at average annual rates higher than what''s needed.
Other countries like Namibia, Netherlands, Palestine, Jordan and Chile have also grown solar and wind at remarkably high rates. Most of these countries appear well poised to extend their high levels of growth beyond five years, considering that their fastest years of growth have been the most recent.
Renewable energy has grown exponentially over the past two decades, with wind and solar comprising 12% of global electricity generation in 2022. Yet that share needs to reach at least 57% by 2030 to stay on track with net zero.
These three countries have already grown solar and wind at steeper rates than what''s needed.
Several other countries have also experienced remarkable rates of growth.
The top eight countries are quite diverse, proving that a rapid transition is possible in many different contexts. Some have highincome levelslike Denmark (GDP per capita of $67,000 in 2022); some are in the middle like Uruguay ($21,000) and Lithuania ($25,000); and others are much lower income like Namibia ($5,000) and Jordan ($4,000). Theirpopulation densityranges from 798 people per square kilometer in Palestine to only 3 people per square kilometer in Namibia. In some of these countries,electricity use per capitahas been growing rapidly, as in Uruguay, while in others it has been declining, like in Denmark.
Our ranking focuses on the growth in a country''s share of solar and wind rather than total levels, which is why some other countries that have been influential in the development of renewable technologies are not on the list. China and the United States build the most renewable energy capacity each year, but because they are so populous, solar and wind still makes up less than one-sixth of electricity generation in both countries. Other countries have both a large population and have achieved a high share of solar and wind in their national electricity mix, like Spain (33%), Germany (32%) and the United Kingdom (29%) but for those three countries, the growth took place over a longer period at rates less than 3 percentage points per year.
Let''s dive deeper into Denmark, Uruguay and Namibia to learn about the ingredients of a successful transition to solar and wind in different national circumstances.
Denmark has been at the forefront of wind energy innovation for more than a century. In 1891, a Danish scientist constructed one of theworld''s first wind turbines. That legacy is carried on today, as the governmentspendsmoreon renewable energy research and development as a share of GDP than any other country. Denmark is also home to Vestas, the world''sbiggest wind turbine manufacturer.
Government policy has been thedriving forcebehind wind power growth. After many decades of experimentation, Denmark began developing its wind industry in earnest in the 1970s to boost energy security in response to the oil crisis. The governmentintroducedwind power subsidies including afeed-in tariff, which guarantees that wind power producers receive a fixed, above-market price for the electricity they produce. It promotedcommunity ownershipof wind turbines, which helped increase public support for wind power for several decades.
In 2001, a new governmentpulled backfinancial support, which slowed the growth of wind power. At the same time, it became harder for community groups to afford larger, more expensive turbines.
Eventually, a new government coalition recommitted to renewable energy policy. Denmark''s 2008 Renewable Energy Actraisedthe feed-in tariff for wind, providing a stable revenue source for wind developers and costs soon began to fall again. In addition, the new lawrequiredwind developers to offer at least a 20% ownership share to local citizens and included other measures to benefit people living close to wind turbines. After this and other new policies, Denmark''s wind industry entered its fastest period of growth.
Today,more than halfof Denmark''s power comes from wind energy — the most of any country in the world. Denmark''s grid is closely interconnected with neighboring countries, so it also exports wind power on windy days. Thanks to the growth of wind and other zero-carbon energy sources, Denmark has successfullyphased downfossil fuels from 97% of its electricity mix in 1990 to 16% today.
Denmark''s renewables growth has slowed since 2015, but there have still been exciting developments, such as the construction of twoartificial energy islandsoff the coast that will produce wind and someday green hydrogen. Still, Denmark needs more renewable energy deployment if it hopes to meet its ambitiousemissions-reduction targets.
In just five years, Uruguay increased wind power from1% to 34%of its electricity mix, an astonishing rise that''s the fastest any country has ever achieved in that short a time frame. The speed is especially impressive considering that Uruguay''s GDP per capita is four times lower than Denmark''s, it didn''t have any history with the wind industry before the mid-2000s and its electricity demand was growing. So how did Uruguay stimulate such a rapid change?
Uruguay historically relied on hydropower, but aseries of droughtsfrom 1997 to 2007 drained the reservoirs, causing blackouts that required the country to pay for expensive fossil fuel imports. In response, the government developed a comprehensive planin 2008for wind energy in concert with national and international stakeholders. Soon thereafter, the majority political party sought out andreachedan agreement with the opposition party to guarantee the plan''s longevity. As then-President José Mujicasaid, "governments pass and people remain."
Uruguay''s wind power strategykicked offwith a program that helped demonstrate the potential of wind power for the country and remove barriers for the wind industry, funded by $6 million from the government''s budget and $1 million from a Global Environment Facility grant. The strategy succeeded in securing more substantial investments in renewables. From 2010 to 2016, Uruguay''s received$5.6 billionin clean energy investment from private banks and international development banks.
The initial wind energy strategy allowed independent power producers to feed renewable energy into the grid for the first time. The state-owned utility, UTE, arranged competitive auctions for large-scale wind development and a feed-in tariff for small-scale wind projects. Uruguay wasn''t able to provide large financial incentives for wind power, but what itcould offerwas long-term 25-year contracts, guaranteeing fixed rates and stable revenue for companies. This kept the prices of wind power low. Uruguay alsofunded trainingfor the state-owned utility on how to integrate renewable energy into the grid.
Uruguay benefited from the fact that it is relatively wealthy and stablecompared to other countries in the region, and its national utility also has ahighcredit rating, which allowed loans to be obtained at low rates.
Namibia is in a far different position than Denmark or even Uruguay, with an annualGDP per capitaof only $4,911. It has been steadily expanding its grid, but as of 2020 44% of its population lackedaccess to electricity. Yet Namibia is becoming a solar leader. Within a decade, Namibia grew solar toone-quarterof its national electricity mix.
Themajorityof Namibia''s power is imported from neighboring countries such as South Africa. This is expensive, and it became even more so after South Africa started experiencing supply shortages in 2008. A desire for energy security led political decision-makers in Namibia to turn to solar energy. It was the obvious choice. Namibia receiveson average10 hours of strong sunlight per day for 300 days a year, making itthe number one countryin the world in terms of the amount of solar photovoltaic energy that it could practically utilize. A solar panel in Namibia receives twice as much useable solar energy per year as one in Ireland, the least sunny country in the world.
To attract private investment, in 2015 the state-owned utility, Nampower,opened uppower generation to independent power projects as part of its feed-in tariff program. In the following years, Nampower introduced competitive auctions for solar and implemented further policy reforms. By 2018, Namibia had20 independent power projects, mostly solar. All of the solar technologies areimported, but Namibia''s laws require that ashareof independent power projects are owned by Namibians, including disadvantaged groups.
The Namibian government didn''t have to offer big financial incentives to achieve its rapid solar buildout. Solar plants werecost-competitivein Namibia without subsidies. The country''s recent auctions have achieved some of thelowest pricesfor solar in all of Africa, well below typical grid electricity prices. The growth in solar was made easier because Namibia has a positiveinvestment climatecompared to many other African countries. Nampower itself is ingood financial standing, inviting investor confidence.
Exciting developments continue. Given Namibia''s desert climate, solar could also be a solution to increase access to clean water. In 2019 it inaugurated its first-ever seawaterdesalinationsystem powered by solar energy, which has 70% lower life-cycle costs than traditional desalination systems since it doesn''t require any fuel. In 2021 Namibia agreed to partner with USAID''s Power Africa on theMega Solarinitiative to support the procurement of 300-500 MW of solar in the next few years. It''s also looking to begingreen hydrogenproduction forexportto Europe, which would be powered by renewable energy, although ensuring that local populations have access to clean, reliable electricity will be of utmost importance.
While we can''t draw any firm conclusions from so few examples, there are a few traits that these three countries share.
Boosting energy security:Denmark acted in response to the oil crisis of the 1970s, Uruguay in response to a drought that made its hydropower less effective and Namibia to reduce dependence on expensive South African imports and to increase electricity access.
Designing smart and effective policies:All three countries launched national renewable energy strategies rather than waiting for it to emerge purely from the private sector. Forward-thinking leaders gave their political support for their renewable energy rollout, so that the policies were maintained over a long enough time period to build up a critical speed. Even though these countries span a range of income levels, they all had effective governance and were financially healthy.
Costs clearly mattered:Denmark started much earlier than the other countries, so it needed to consistently subsidize renewable energy, andwhen it didn''t the growth trailed off. Uruguay and Namibia didn''t need to rely as much on subsidies because they started later and renewable costs had already fallen — plus their other options were expensive. For them, subsidies were less of an option anyway given limited budgets. However, they still needed to implement policy reforms to ensure the private sector could supply energy at competitive prices. In the future, continually falling costs of renewables should allow more countries to follow in their footsteps.
Achieving realsystems changewill require rapid rates of growth in solar and wind to be achieved and sustained in all countries, not just the leaders. Developed countries that have greater historical responsibility for greenhouse gas emissions and greater capability to act should aim to grow renewables more quickly than the global average to accommodate other countries where a rapid shift is less feasible. At the same time, renewables will have to meet growing demand for power as the world increases energy access and more people buy electric cars and other electrified end-use technologies. But as shown by these examples, with political commitment and policy flexibility, it is possible for countries with very different circumstances to rapidly shift to renewable energy.
This article is part of the Systems Change Lab, a collaborative initiative — which includes an open-sourced data platform — that is designed to spur action at the pace and scale needed to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius, halt biodiversity loss and build a just and equitable economy.
World Resources Institute10 G Street NESuite 800Washington DC 20002+1 (202) 729-7600
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