Rural area, Monofiya Governorate, Egypt.
Egyptians are experiencing firsthand the impacts of climate change as temperatures soar, droughts are more frequent and future water supply is less certain. That is why Egypt has put climate change as one of its top development priorities.
A key element of the Egyptian government''s efforts to address climate change is connecting the dots between the food, water and energy sectors. This was particularly evident during Egypt''s presidency of COP27 when — building on its national strategies and updated Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), and on the World Bank''s Egypt Country Climate and Development Report (CCDR) — the government launched a flagship program called the Country Platform for the Nexus of Water, Food and Energy (NWFE).
The first phase of this program bundles nine priority projects, extracted from the National Climate Change Strategy 2050, that focus on water, food, and energy. These projects support Egypt''s green transition by leveraging partnerships and mobilizing climate finance and private investments. One year into its implementation the NWFE program has attracted a significant amount of support for a variety of projects, while engaging donors, multilateral development banks and the private sector. The Ministry of International Cooperation took stock of implementation of NWFE, the Arabic translation for "Fulfilling pledges", in November 2023.
"Focusing on efficient and inclusive ways of managing the water, food and energy sectors boosts the economy and creates jobs, while also helping to protect Egypt from the adverse effects of climate change and making it more competitive globally," said Stephane Guimbert, World Bank Country Director for Egypt, Yemen, and Djibouti. "NWFE is a trailblazing country platform that brings partners together, under the leadership of the government, to ensure our programs are more than the sum of the parts. The World Bank is committed to supporting Egypt''s ambitious and innovative climate endeavors, helping Egyptians to live healthier and more productive lives."
The World Bank has supported NWFE from the outset through its research and projects. For example, the CCDR helped to guide the design of NWFE, laying out the kind of investments and policy actions needed to decrease the negative impacts of climate change and at the same time creating economic and developmental wins for Egyptians. The CCDR identifies opportunities to reduce climate action inefficiencies, manage risk, and strengthen the foundation for increased private-sector participation. In addition, it offers a set of policy options and investment opportunities that, if implemented within five years, can deliver short-term benefits in selected sectors and create momentum for important long-term benefits.
These examples of support to NWFE are also fully aligned with the new World Bank Egypt Partnership framework, which was designed to address the country''s emerging development needs, including climate action. The framework focuses on integrating climate action aspects into all relevant projects.
Much of Egypt''s population is already suffering from the effects of climate change, and many more are at risk. If the country continues the mitigations it has started, it can still help to protect them.
The Middle East Program in Washington combines in-depth regional knowledge with incisive comparative analysis to provide deeply informed recommendations. With expertise in the Gulf, North Africa, Iran, and Israel/Palestine, we examine crosscutting themes of political, economic, and social change in both English and Arabic.
Before evaluating the socioeconomic and political consequences of climate change, it is necessary to outline Egypt''s preexisting environmental challenges. This overview will establish a baseline for understanding the compounding impact of climate change, with a view to how climate change deepens existing vulnerabilities, aggravates governance challenges, and requires new public policy designs to address it.
With population density in Egypt''s LECZ being orders of magnitude greater than the national average (1,075 people per square kilometer in the LECZ compared to seventy people per square kilometer nationally) and with four-fifths of Egypt''s population residing within 100 kilometers of the sea, crowding in coastal cities may make accessing services or emergency relief more difficult.11 As Egypt''s national and coastal populations rise, the problem will only become more urgent. This is especially alarming considering that between 11.75percent and 15.56 percent of the entire belt of the Nile Delta may be inundated by the year 2100 because of land subsidence alone—that is, even without accounting for sea level rise or other effects of climate change.12
Egypt''s economic conditions make the problem even more difficult. Even as Egypt faces the demand to finance climate mitigation and adaptation, it also must contend with an economy suffering from surging debt, skyrocketing inflation, and persistent inequality.13 With unemployment hovering around 7 percent and annual core inflation soaring to over 40 percent in May 2023, millions of Egyptians are struggling to make ends meet, with about three in ten (29.7 percent) living below the country''s national poverty line.14 Difficult macroeconomic conditions may increase the challenges involved in adapting to climate change. Egypt''s economic dependence on its agriculture and livestock sector is a case in point.
For Egypt, agriculture is economically vital. Approximately 55 percent of the country''s labor force is involved in various agricultural activities, and in 2019 the sector formally employed 21 percent of Egyptian workers.15 The Ministry of Agriculture alone employs around 100,000 workers, making it the country''s second-largest employer.16 The agricultural sector generated about 11.3 percent of Egypt''s overall gross domestic product (GDP) in 2021. Moreover, its products satisfy around 30 percent of the county''s food requirements, making it a crucial source of both sustenance and income for countless Egyptians.17
Equally pressing is the need to build resilience for other climate-exposed sectors, such as tourism, which before the pandemic generated more than 10 percent of GDP and accounted for over 7 percent of jobs.20 As climate change jeopardizes these critical income streams, it may become increasingly difficult to mobilize the resources necessary to transform vulnerable sectors and accelerate adaptation. In other words, already vulnerable Egyptians may grow even more precarious at the same time that governance becomes increasingly costly and difficult.
Climate change will lead to heightened temperatures and unpredictable rainfall patterns in Egypt. This weather shift is already underway as the North African country warms at an accelerating speed. Though average annual temperatures have increased at an overall rate of 0.1°C per decade between 1901 and 2013, the rate of temperature rise in the past thirty years alone has shot up to an alarming 0.53°C per decade.21 Surface temperatures in Egypt and elsewhere in the Nile River Basin have also kept pace with this rise, increasing by an average of 0.16°C to 0.4°C, with El-Minya Governorate in Upper Egypt reaching temperatures of between 40°C and 44°C in recent years.22
These rising temperatures show no signs of abating. Rather, climate models predict that Egypt''s average annual temperature may rise by a steep 2.1°C by the middle of the century and by a significant 4.4°C by the close of the century, if global emissions persist.23 Areas such as South Sinai and Aswan will be especially vulnerable to extreme temperatures, warming by an even greater 5.12°C and 5.49°C by 2100, respectively.24 This projected trend of "more hot weather and less cold weather" is deeply troubling for Egypt''s human security, food production, and water scarcity.25
The clearest and most immediate impact of atmospheric warming would, of course, be heat stress on humans, animals, and plants. As the global climate warms, heat-related mortality is expected to increase by as much as forty-seven times by 2080.26 Research suggests that "increased particulate matter concentrations and heat stress could result in approximately 2,000 to 5,000 more deaths per year, with an equivalent loss of 20 to 48 billion [Egyptian pounds] per year."27 Although these figures are worrying for all Egyptians, not everyone will bear the burden evenly.
For the economy, heat stress may also mean declining productivity. In 1995, Egypt''s workers across all sectors lost an estimated 0.16 percent of their annual work hours to heat on average. Whereas heat deprived the economy of around 25,000 productive work hours in 1995, it is expected to waste up to 134,000 work hours per year by 2030. These calculations are based on a best-case scenario of containing global warming to under 1.5°C, with the agriculture and construction sectors experiencing the steepest declines.32 Of course, this estimate does not account for the other dimensions of heat-induced economic loss, which include health expenditure, costly energy consumption for cooling, and damage to agriculture and livestock.
Climate change will also make Egypt''s precipitation less predictable. Indeed, in the past thirty years alone, Egypt''s total annual rainfall decreased by about 22 percent.36 If current trends persist, Egypt''s could see its rainfall decline further by 2.9 millimeters annually before the end of the century.37 As climate change disturbs regional weather patterns, Egypt''s rain-dependent dry-land farmers will especially struggle to find alternative sources of irrigation.38 The agriculture sector as a whole will have to grapple with decreased rainfall, but vulnerable smallholders will be hit the hardest, thereby amplifying the existing economic inequalities between large agrobusinesses and small-scale subsistence farmers.
To make matters even more challenging, the joint impact of decreased precipitation and rising temperatures may also subject Egypt to more drought. By increasing surface water evaporation and reducing groundwater recharge rates, higher temperatures and decreased rainfall could predispose Egypt to more frequent and prolonged hot and dry episodes. Heat waves may be prolonged by nine days to seventy-seven days, while "dry spells [could possibly] increase by 75 days by the 2080s."39 Needless to say, Egypt''s water scarcity and food production will likely suffer as a result.40
Egypt will also need to reckon with rising sea levels, erosion along its coasts, and land subsidence, as well as their associated problems of flooding, saltwater intrusion, and rising soil salinity. Before demonstrating the effects these issues will have on Egypt''s water scarcity, food production, and human security, it is useful to first highlight Egypt''s existing coastal vulnerabilities.
As previously mentioned, Egypt''s low-lying coasts are already prone to flooding: 2.4 percent of all of Egypt''s territory is classified as falling into a LECZ, lower than 10 meters above sea levels.41 Especially vulnerable is the country''s Mediterranean coast. Even without considering the rise in sea levels, land along Egypt''s northern coastline is actively subsiding. The Nile Delta is expected to undergo a concerning sinking rate of "1–5[millimeters]/year to 3.7[millimeters]–8.4[millimeters]/year."42 Alexandria and Port Saied are also sinking at rates of 1.6millimeters per year and 2.3millimeters per year respectively.43 Climate change and the rise in sea levels will exacerbate this already dire situation.
As a result, coastal communities on Egypt''s Mediterranean coast are dangerously exposed to climate change. Take Alexandria for example: with 45 percent of its population already living in areas below sea level, Alexandria is at acute risk of flooding.49 As little as 0.5 meters of sea level rise "would place 67% of the [city''s] population, 65.9% of the industrial sector, and 75.9% of the service sector, below sea level... 1.5 million people would have to be evacuated, and over 195,000 jobs would be lost."50 At 1 meter rise, 76 percent of Alexandria''s population, 64 percent of its beaches, 52 percent of its residential areas, 72 percent of its industrial sector, and 82 percent of the city''s services would be at risk of inundation.51
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