A three-day workshop in Lusaka invited a broad range of stakeholders to assess the results of the country''s Strategic Program for Climate Resilience – and draw lessons for future investments.
Since 2011, when Zambia''s Strategic Program for Climate Resilience was approved, CIF has invested US$91.43 million to enhance adaptive capacity at the local level, make key infrastructure more resilient, strengthen climate governance, and facilitate private investment in resilience-building.
The funds flowed through four projects co-financed by the World Bank and the African Development Bank (AfDB), starting in 2013, that together mobilized over $300 million, including funds from CIF''s Pilot Program for Climate Resilience, the two banks, the government, and other sources.
Now, with PPCR activities in Zambia wrapping up, CIF has piloted one more innovation there: a "close-out" mission to gather insights from a wide range of stakeholders about the results and impact achieved from the national to the local level, and draw lessons for future investments.
This "close-out" approach is the endline of a very unique results system put in place by the CIF more than a decade ago. The system utilizes a country ownership driven approach not commonly seen where countries convene a national multi-stakeholder scoring workshop on an annual basis to collate, aggregate, deliberate, validate the results.
What made a difference in this unique system is that it places people squarely at the center of the results measurement approach itself – and representatives from diverse stakeholder groups in each country are directly involved in participatory results reporting of the country''s resilience agenda and the program''s investment outcomes. In Zambia and in other CIF PPCR countries - they have customized this monitoring of results approach to their own institutional and national context. In practice, this approach has led to significant learning, knowledge-generation, and implementation feedback loops between the relevant actors on the Resilience Agenda in Zambia.
"This is all about the results," said Sandra Romboli, who led the close-out workshop in Lusaka on 23–25 January. "We dove into what worked well and what could be better, we looked at the detailed results achieved and how well different groups were included. This approach also includes dimensions of gender, stakeholder engagement and social inclusion, as well as the extent to which we see lasting, systemic and transformational change. And we asked: Did we contribute to the transformation needed to tackle resilience and roof causes of vulnerability?"
The Lusaka mission, which will be replicated in other PPCR countries as their own investment plans are completed, was designed to capture an even broader range of perspectives and support deeper learning.
"It is important to take stock of the full impacts of our investments," said Luis Tineo, interim CEO of CIF. "This new approach showcases CIF''s commitment to harvest robust results, which we see as essential to ensuring that the climate finance we deliver is truly effective. PPCR has a strong track record of catalyzing investment in climate resilience. Now we''ll also be able to gauge its success at improving governance, building capacities, and driving transformation."
The Lusaka workshop brought together more than 50 people from the national government, district and ward level governments, civil society, the private sector, the World Bank, and the AfDB, as well as CIF staff. "We saw some major strides at the national level in terms of planning, new policies, and new regulations," Romboli said. There was important evidence of horizontal integration – across sectors – that has enabled climate resilience measures to be taken up in a broad manner in Zambia. Partly through revised sector policies and regulations but also through the establishment of task teams/ steering committees to mainstream Climate Change / Resilience and reaching across eight sectors.
"We also saw important climate resilience tools that have been put in place and integrated vertically from the national level, and all the way down to the community level. We saw very important capacity building at the grassroots level, and significant climate-proofing of infrastructure."
The final day of the workshop focused on synthesizing what was learned and on finding ways to sustain the benefits of the PPCR projects in the long term. In addition, CIF staff conducted a field visit to a PPCR project site and multiple interviews. Lessons and perspectives will be shared over the coming weeks and months, looking both at the close-out process, and at lessons for Zambia in particular.
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Zambia is not endowed with large proven reserves of fossil-fuel resources such as coal, oil or natural gas. Currently all petroleum products in Zambia are imported which leaves the country at risk to global energy shocks. The vast majority of the electricity supply (83%) is dependent on hydro sources which have become prone to effects of climate change in the form of uncertain rainfall patterns and increasingly frequent droughts. Recent electricity supply deficits in 2015 and 2020 have had a detrimental effect on economic growth and poverty reduction. This is a picture of a country with too narrow a range of energy sources and too dependent on imported fuel.
The bulk of primary energy used in Zambia is obtained from biofuels with 73% coming from this source in 2019. This consists mainly of solid biomass such as firewood and charcoal. The large reliance on biomass is not sustainable and has negative consequences for local environments in the form of increased deforestation and pollution. Oil and other imported petroleum products make up 12% of the energy supply. There is increased local production of bioethanol for blending with petrol at a ratio of 1:10 which would slightly reduce the dependence on oil. Hydro-electric power contributes only 10% of the energy supply despite its economic importance. The variation of primary energy supply sources in Zambia between 1990 and 2019 is shown in the figure below.
Hydrogen has been touted as the fuel of the future in the energy transition from fossil fuels to low carbon energy. Many technological innovations are being made to ensure that hydrogen is a safe and cost-effective product to generate, store, transport and use. According to projections, the global final energy mix will rapidly shift towards electricity and hydrogen, with one estimate that the two technologies will represent 32% of the global energy mix by 2035 and 50% by 2050. This trend is shown in the figure below.
Green hydrogen is created using renewable electricity in an electrolyser by splitting water into its constituent parts. Green hydrogen can be used to link renewable electricity generation with sectors that are difficult to electrify such as heat for industry and as a fuel for large vehicles.
Because of its physical location and suitable natural resources Zambia is predicted to be able to produce green hydrogen that would be competitive in price on the world market as shown in the figure below. According to this assessment southern and western parts of the country should be able to produce hydrogen at a price less than $2.2/kg at some point between 2030 and 2050. This estimated future hydrogen price is compared with current energy prices in the table below.
The technology necessary to successfully deploy clean energy is largely imported into Zambia. A new technology and innovation ecosystem needs to be developed in which industry, academia and government work together to select and develop the most appropriate technology needed to solve local problems and generate wealth in the country. One technology that could be of benefit to Zambia is the development and manufacture of electrolysers.
Electrolysers use electricity to convert water into hydrogen and oxygen. Electrolysers come in three main types: alkaline, polymer electron membrane (PEM) and solid oxide. Alkaline electrolysers are the most used type in industrial settings. They use electrodes made of iron, nickel and nickel alloy sometimes with cobalt catalysts which would make this technology relatively accessible for sourcing materials in Zambia. By contrast PEM electrolysers require more exotic rare materials like iridium and ruthenium. Both alkaline and PEM electrolysers operate at relatively low temperatures (< 80°C). Solid oxide electrolysers are still in development in part due to technical problems caused by their operation at temperatures greater than 700°C.
Figure 4: Schematic and properties of alkaline electrolyser [4]Figure 4b chematic and properties of alkaline electrolyser [4]
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