Climate change south ossetia

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The new Russian legislation allowing regions of another country to seek to join the Russian Federation gives Moscow leverage over a number of regions. Georgians are worrying that South Ossetia could be one of these regions.

The new Russian legislation allowing regions of another country to seek to join the Russian Federation gives Moscow leverage over a number of regions. First on the list is Transnistria, which has already applied to become part of Russia.

Meeting officials from Abkhazia and South Ossetia in Moscow last week, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said that he "respects the will of the Abkhaz people, which has chosen independence."

Lavrov''s words seemed to cover South Ossetia by implication too, but the case is very different. It is so small (with a current population of no more than 50,000 people) that its residents are not in control of its own destiny. But, given a choice, many South Ossetians would welcome the chance of union with the much bigger republic of North Ossetia on the other side of the mountains to form a single republic of "Alania" inside Russia.

So we should not discount a report I heard in Georgia earlier this month that the South Ossetian authorities are considering holding a referendum on union with Russia on June 8, to be held in parallel with their parliamentary elections. I was told that this was the message the hyper-active Duma deputy Leonid Slutsky brought to South Ossetia on March 28—although the only press report on the visit recorded Slutsky passing on birthday greetings to South Ossetian leader Leonid Tibilov and presenting him with a copy of Pravda from his birth-date in 1952.

Slutsky was one of the first Russian politicians to stir up Crimea and has also been instigating trouble in the Moldovan region of Gagauzia.

So Slutsky''s visit may just have been a trial balloon.

Georgians are nervously worrying about a new wave of Russian pressure tactics against them, designed to halt the planned signing of a European Union Association Agreement in June. But at the moment the only news in Georgian-Russian relations is the continued thaw: the renewal of trade and talk of the restoration of a direct air link.

Donald Trump''s victory underscores the need for the EU to rethink its political economic model. As it adapts its policies, the union must recognize the trade-offs between its quest for economic security and its global identity as a champion of the rules-based order.

Moscow''s actual nuclear decisions would likely not involve Putin carefully parsing doctrinal clauses.

Richard Grenell''s return to U.S. diplomacy would present both risks and opportunities for the Western Balkans. Regardless of any flashy deals the new administration may offer, countries in the region must remain steadfast in their pursuit of democratization and European integration.

Riyadh''s fence-sitting strategy reflects its desire to keep all doors open. Others may follow its lead.

Support for negotiations toward a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine has been growing in the West. Should Kyiv accept a freezing of the contact line and its NATO membership process, and what are the alternate paths to peace?

A referendum on South Ossetia''s incorporation into the Russian Federation has been postponed until after the presidential election in the region due in early 2017. This means that there is still a large question mark over the optimum relationship between Russia and South Ossetia.

Over the past few years, the situation in and around South Ossetia has frequently incited heated debates. A new status quo was established in the Caucasus following the five-day war between Russia and Georgia in August 2008, when Moscow formally recognized South Ossetia as an independent sovereign state. The war also transformed Moscow from a peacekeeper and moderator into South Ossetia''s patron, the guarantor of its security, and the underwriter of its economic recovery.

The West does not recognize the new status quo and continues to back Georgia''s territorial integrity and to chastise Russia for supporting separatism.

British political analyst Laurence Broers has said that "de facto states tend to be seen only in the context of their interactions with external actors and peace processes." Broers''s analysis can be taken further. Unrecognized and semi-recognized post-Soviet states tend frequently to be seen only in the context of geopolitical games derived either from the Kosovo precedent or the Crimea case—international affairs issues that shape relations between Russia and the West. If South Ossetia were annexed, the West would inevitably view this as a direct continuation of the Crimea initiative, which would prompt a new round of confrontation. However, in reality, the situation in South Ossetia follows its own course and has no connection to the events in Crimea and Kosovo.

Western analysts and politicians keep remarking that the region lacks sufficient resources for statehood. Svante Cornell, a Swedish scholar, asserts that South Ossetia has no economic foundation at all. British expert Thomas de Waal points out that South Ossetia is much smaller than the other breakaway region Abkhazia and—unlike the latter—lacks a Black Sea coastline.

According to the 2015 census in South Ossetia (the first since the dissolution of the USSR), the region currently has 51,000 residents. Georgian authorities estimate the population of South Ossetia at no more than 15,000–20,000. For comparison, North Ossetia has a population of more than 700,000.

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