The 2021 ATB represents cost and performance for battery storage across a range of durations (1–8 hours). It represents lithium-ion batteries only at this time. There are a variety of other commercial and emerging energy storage technologies; as costs are well characterized, they will be added to Contact online >>
The 2021 ATB represents cost and performance for battery storage across a range of durations (1–8 hours). It represents lithium-ion batteries only at this time. There are a variety of other commercial and emerging energy storage technologies; as costs are well characterized, they will be added to the ATB.
Current costs for commercial and industrial BESS are based on NREL''s bottom-up BESS cost model using the data and methodology of(Feldman et al., 2021), who estimated costs for a600-kWDCstand-alone BESS with 0.5–4.0 hours of storage. We use the same model and methodology but do not restrict the power and energy capacity of the BESS. Feldman et al. assumed an inverter/storage ratio of 1.67 based on guidance from(Denholm et al., 2017). We adopt this assumption, too.
Key modeling assumptions and inputs are shown in the Table 1. Because we do not have battery costs that are specific to commercial and industrial BESS, we use the battery pack costs from(Feldman et al., 2021), which vary depending on the battery duration. These battery costs are close to our assumptions for battery pack costs for residential BESS at low storage durations and for utility-scale battery costs for utility-scale BESS at long durations. The underlying battery costs in Feldman et al. come from(Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF), 2019a)and should be consistent with battery cost assumptions for the residential and utility-scale markets.
Table 1. Commercial and Industrial LIB Energy Storage Systems: 2019 Model Inputs and Assumptions (2019 USD)
60–1,200 kWDC power capacity
Figure1. Estimated costs of commercial and industrial stand-alone PV, stand-alone BESS, and PV+BESS using NREL bottom-up model
Available cost data and projections for distributed battery storage are very limited. Therefore, the battery cost and performance projections in the 2021 ATB are based on the same literature review as for utility-scale and residential battery cost projections. The projections are based on a literature review of 19 sources published in 2018 or 2019, as described by(Cole and Frazier, 2020).Three projections from 2019 to 2050 are developed for scenario modeling based on this literature.
Future cost projections for commercial and industrial BESS and PV+BESS are made using the same methodology as is used for residential BESS and PV+BESS. The normalized cost reduction projections for LIB packs used in residential BESS by(Mongird et al., 2020)are applied to future battery costs, and cost reductions for other BESS components use the same cost reduction potentials in Figure 2. Costs for commercial and industrial PV systems come from the 2020 ATB Moderate and Advanced Scenarios). We could not find projected costs for commercial and industrial BESS in the literature for comparison.
Figure 2. Changes in projected component costs for residential BESS
Data Source:(Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF), 2019a)
Definition:The bottom-up cost model documented by(Feldman et al., 2021)contains detailed cost buckets for both solar only, battery only, and combined systems costs. Though the battery pack is a significant cost portion, it is a minority of the cost of the battery system. This cost breakdown is different if the battery is part of a hybrid system with solar PV or a stand-alone system. These relative costs for commercial scale stand-alone battery are demonstrated in Table 2.
Table 2. Capital Cost Components for Commercial Building-Scale Battery Systems
Base Year: The Base Year cost estimate is taken from(Feldman et al., 2021)and is currently $2019.
Within theATB Dataspreadsheet, costs are separated into energy and power cost estimates, which allows capital costs to be constructed for durations other than 4 hours according to the following equation:
For more information on the power versus energy cost breakdown, see(Cole and Frazier, 2020).
Base Year:(Cole and Frazier, 2020)assume no variable O&M(VOM) cost. All operating costs are instead represented using fixed O&M (FOM) costs. They include augmentation costs needed to keep the battery system operating at rated capacity for its lifetime. In the 2020 ATB, FOM is defined as the value needed to compensate for degradation to enable the battery system to have a constant capacity throughout its life. According to the literature review(Cole and Frazier, 2020), FOM costs are estimated at 2.5% of the capital costs in dollars per kilowatt.
Future Years: In the 2021 ATB, the FOM costs and VOM costs remain constant at the values listed above for all scenarios.
The cost and performance of the battery systems are based on an assumption of approximately one cycle per day. Therefore, a 4-hour device has an expected capacity factor of 16.7% (4/24 = 0.167), and a 2-hour device has an expected capacity factor of 8.3% (2/24 = 0.083). Degradation is a function of this usage rate of the model and systems might need to be replaced at some point during the analysis period. We use the capacity factor for a 4-hour device as the default value for ATB.
Round-trip efficiency is the ratio of useful energy output to useful energy input.(Mongird et al., 2020)identified 86% as a representative round-trip efficiency, and the 2021 ATB adopts this value.
The following references are specific to this page; for all references in this ATB, see References.
Augustine, Chad, and Nate Blair. “Energy Storage Futures Study: Storage Technology Modeling Input Data Report.” Golden, CO: National Renewable Energy Laboratory, 2021. https://
Feldman, David, Vignesh Ramasamy, Ran Fu, Ashwin Ramdas, Jal Desai, and Robert Margolis. “U.S. Solar Photovoltaic System and Energy Storage Cost Benchmark: Q1 2020.” National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States), January 27, 2021. https://doi /10.2172/1764908.
Denholm, Paul, Josh Eichman, and Robert Margolis. “Evaluating the Technical and Economic Performance of PV Plus Storage Power Plants,” 2017. https://
Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF). “Energy Storage System Costs Survey 2019,” October 14, 2019a.
Cole, Wesley, and Will A. Frazier. “Cost Projections for Utility-Scale Battery Storage: 2020 Update.” Technical Report. Golden, CO: National Renewable Energy Laboratory, 2020. https://
Mongird, Kendall, Vilayanur Viswanathan, Jan Alam, Charlie Vartanian, Vincent Sprenkle, and Richard Baxter. “2020 Grid Energy Storage Technology Cost and Performance Assessment.” USDOE, December 2020. https://
Frith, James. “Energy Storage System Costs Survey 2020.” Bloomberg New Energy Finance, December 16, 2020.
Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF). “2019 Long-Term Energy Storage Outlook,” July 31, 2019b. https://
The battery storage technologies do not calculate LCOE or LCOS, so do not use financial assumptions. Therefore all parameters are the same for the R&D and Markets & Policies Financials cases.
The 2023 ATB represents cost and performance for battery storage across a range of durations (1–8 hours). It represents onlylithium-ion batteries (LIBs) - those with nickel manganese cobalt (NMC) and lithium iron phosphate (LFP) chemistries - at this time, with LFP becoming the primary chemistry for stationary storage starting in 2021. There are a variety of other commercial and emerging energy storage technologies; as costs are characterized to the same degree as LIBs, they will be added to future editions of the ATB.
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