,、、, 2030 60%, 2045 100%。。
The state of California has set an ambitious goal of getting all of its energy from clean sources by 2045. As the Times investigation makes clear, there are several factors at play that could make that challenging — including the way that different stakeholders interact with the state’s energy market. it sure sounds like there’s a green energy-centric version of The Big Short to be written and/or filmed here — one that might make heads spin faster than your average wind turbine.
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The seismic shift coming to California''s rooftop solar market in 2023 has been brewing for nearly a decade.
A bill overwhelmingly approved by state lawmakers in 2013 ordered the California Public Utilities Commission — which regulates investor-owned utility companies — to rework a solar incentive program called net metering. Lawmakers directed the agency to ensure that the "total benefits" of the program were "approximately equal to the total costs" — meaning utility customers without rooftop solar panels weren''t paying more to subsidize their solar-powered neighbors than they should be.
But the bill also ordered the Public Utilities Commission to ensure that the solar market "continues to grow sustainably," and to adopt incentives targeted at low-income families who might not be able to afford solar otherwise.
"We required the [commission] to design a program that does two things: create certainty for rooftop, and at the same time address the cost shift for non-solar customers," then-Assemblymember Henry Perea, who wrote the legislation, told me in 2015. "It''s not an easy task."
Most certainly not. The commission''s long-awaited decision, which I wrote about for The Times last week, spurred all sorts of fiery reactions. Solar installers and environmental activists said it would crater the market and put clean energy out of reach for far too many Californians, lower-income households in particular. The big utility companies — Southern California Edison, Pacific Gas & Electric and San Diego Gas & Electric — said it didn''t go far enough to reduce incentive payments, and would result in continued bill increases for their non-solar customers.
If you live in California, you may be wondering: What does this mean for you? If you already have solar, will you find yourself paying more? If you''ve been thinking about investing in solar — or adding a battery to your existing solar system — how have the economics changed? If you just want your monthly electric bill to stop going up, how much relief can you really expect?
I''ve got answers below. Take a read if you''re interested, or scroll down for this week''s top stories from around the West.
You can definitely still save money with a rooftop system. It just might take longer than it did before.
Under the old rules, the expected "payback period" for homes served by Edison and PG&E was five to six years, according to an industry trade group. That means Edison and PG&E customers who bought solar panels — a purchase typically in the $20,000 range, once federal tax credits are taken into account — could expect to make back their upfront investment in five to six years through lower electric bills. After that, they''d continue to accrue bill savings for as long as their systems lasted.
SDG&E customers could expect an even shorter payback of four years, due to the utility''s especially high electric rates.
Starting in mid-April, when the new rules take effect, the calculation will change. The Public Utilities Commission has estimated a payback period of nine years for Edison and PG&E residential customers who go solar after April 13, and six years for homes served by SDG&E.
Solar installers say that''s too long for households that don''t have money to burn. They also think the commission used a lowball figure for the cost of solar, and thus underestimated how long it will take consumers to make back their investment.
Commission members have made the opposite argument, saying payback periods will probably be shorter than they''ve calculated. That''s because the agency''s calculations don''t account for the near-inevitability that electric rates will continue to rise, leading to higher monthly bill savings than they''ve estimated.
Yes. Under the new rules, low-income homes enrolled in subsidized electricity programs known as CARE or FERA will receive higher payments for solar energy they export to the power grid — about 9 cents per kilowatt-hour above base payment rates for qualified Edison and PG&E customers who go solar during the first year after the new rules kick in. Higher-income Edison customers will get an additional 4 cents per kilowatt-hour, and higher-income PG&E customers will get just 2 cents.
But payback periods for low-income homes served by Edison and PG&E will still be an estimated nine years — no shorter than for higher-income homes. That''s because lower-income homes pay lower electric rates to begin with, and thus have less room to save.
Low-income SDG&E customers will see an estimated solar payback of 8.5 years, much longer than the six years projected for everyone else in the San Diego region.
Those numbers are a sore point for activists and companies focused on bringing clean energy to non-wealthy communities. In a written statement, the nonprofit solar installer Grid Alternatives said state officials are "gambling on a complicated incentive structure that uses a conservative estimate of project installation costs in order to achieve a targeted nine-year payback."
"It remains to be seen whether this approach will truly achieve more environmental and economic justice," the installer said.
In a last-minute change approved by the Public Utilities Commission, the higher payments to low-income homes won''t be available only to CARE and FERA customers. All homes on tribal lands and in communities considered "disadvantaged" will be eligible.
Activists applauded the change but said it wasn''t enough. Some had urged the commission to expand the higher payments to all households that earn 80% or less of area median income. But the agency declined to adopt that proposal, which Grid Alternatives criticized as "inconsistent with the [commission''s] own definition of environmental justice communities."
The new rules are designed to encourage solar systems paired with batteries, which can relieve strain on the power grid by banking energy for hot summer evenings when the state has had trouble keeping the lights on. Southern California homes and businesses that export power to the grid on a September weeknight at 7 p.m. could be paid $2.58 per kilowatt-hour, according to a a solar industry trade group, compared with just 2 cents on an April afternoon at 3 p.m., when the state is often awash in cheap electricity.
The Public Utilities Commission''s estimated payback period for solar-plus-storage is 6.5 years for Edison and PG&E customers and less than five years for SDG&E customers. For low-income homes, the estimated paybacks are closer to nine years in Edison and PG&E territory and seven years in SDG&E territory.
Batteries add $10,000 or more in upfront costs once federal tax credits are taken into account. And installers warn that although costs have fallen dramatically over the last decade, the energy storage market is challenged by supply-chain constraints, labor shortages, inflation and other factors that could keep costs relatively high — and installations slow — in the near future.
"Permitting and interconnection times for solar-only projects are around 58 days on average," said Mary Powell, chief executive of leading solar installer Sunrun. "Adding a battery means that same timeline goes to about 113 days on average."
Just 14% of Californians who installed solar over the last year also added batteries. Whether that number rises significantly in the next few years will be a key indicator of the success — or failure — of the new rules.
About two-thirds of the 1.5 million rooftop solar systems in California are customer-owned, either purchased with cash or financed via a loan. The rest are leased, or paid for through "power purchase agreements" in which customers buy energy from the company that installs and maintains their panels. You can save more money long-term owning rooftop solar panels outright. But leases and PPAs are an option for families that don''t have the cash or credit score for a purchase.
It''s not yet clear how companies that focus on leases and PPAs — such as Sunrun — might change their offerings to respond to the new rules. But lower payment rates for solar are expected to result in lower monthly bill savings for customers.
New rebates from the state could help offset the lower savings for customers who lease or buy their systems. The Public Utilities Commission''s decision refers to an expected $900 million in new rebates or other incentives for rooftop solar and batteries, with $630 million set aside for low-income homes. But lawmakers still need to allocate those funds next year.
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