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These reports by Power Africa provide insights into the opportunities and risks associated off-grid solar energy markets in various countries and gives companies, investors, governments, and other stakeholders a deeper understanding of the market.
While there are other market assessments conducted by other stakeholders (i.e. development partners), Power Africa recognizes a gap in the available market assessments. Bridging the gap, these reports are characterized by the following:
These reports also serve as a baseline for Power Africa''s technical advisors to guide their continuing work and provide a snapshot that can be used to determine growth and changing dynamics of the markets over time. Insights provided in these reports include characteristics of a country''s electricity sector, electrification targets, government regulations, donor-funded activities, and details on subsectors of the off-grid solar energy market. Additionally, these reports include expert knowledge from Power Africa lead advisors, information gathered from stakeholder interviews, and data from GOGLA.
Cameroon is a Central African state, approximately 475,442 square kilometers (km2) in size, with a coastline on the Gulf of Guinea of approximately 420 kilometers. Its population is approximately 23 million people, 56 percent of whom live in urban areas. Life expectancy is 58 years. The population density is 49 people per km2, and the country''s annual population growth is 2.6 percent. Cameroon''s key economic indicators include:
Cameroon''s Vision 2035 outlines the country''s development policy goals. However, the country must overcome several challenges on the way, as it faces unprecedented violence in the Northwest and Southwest Regions, where thousands of internally displaced persons are registered. The economy is at a standstill in these regions and social conditions have completely degraded.
Côte d''Ivoire - the world''s largest producer of cocoa and cashew nuts, a net oil exporter, with a rapidly growing manufacturing sector - has enjoyed remarkable economic success since 2012 and is a major economic power in the West Africa region.1 However, Côte d''Ivoire is still challenged by issues of poverty, financial inclusion and literacy, inequitable distribution of wealth, and universal access to goods and services that are required for a modern economy, including reliable and affordable electricity. To understand Côte d''Ivoire in broad terms, the following points are key:
DRC is the fourth most populated country in Africa with an estimated population of 85.8 million people. Approximately 12 million people live in the capital Kinshasa. The remaining population is spread out throughout the country at a low density of 38 people per square kilometer. The growth rate of its population is three percent per year. Currently, more than 40 percent of the population lives in urban areas. Despite a recent period of economic growth, including growth within the energy sector, DRC is still one of the poorest and least developed countries in Africa and has active conflict zones.
Ethiopia is Africa''s oldest independent country and its second largest in terms of population, while also being one of the poorest countries in Africa. The Government of Ethiopia (GOE) is currently implementing the second phase of its Growth and Transformation Plan II (GTP II), which aims for Ethiopia to achieve lower middle income and carbon-neutral status by 2025.1 Along with Ethiopia''s ambitious poverty reduction strategies and targets, the government has recently released its National Electrification Plan 2.0 (NEP 2.0), which strives for universal electrification by 2025 through a mix of on- and off-grid energy solutions. The following statistics provide insight into Ethiopia''s country context:
Ghana''s off-grid power sector is characterized by government policies and donor-funded projects that stress government ownership of energy assets. It is also shaped by private solar home systems (SHS) companies that directly serve consumers. Both government- and company-led approaches are complicated by Ghana''s high, 84 percent, nation electrification rate,1 as remaining off-grid communities present challenges regarding the distribution, installation, and/or servicing of systems.
Government electrification efforts are guided by the Rural Electrification Master Plan, which is a highlevel planning document that sets deployment targets for stand-alone solar systems, solar lanterns, and mini-grids. The implementation of electrification projects is typically funded by donors, such as the African Development Bank''s (AfDB) Ghana Scaling up Renewable Energy Program.
Liberia has one of the lowest rates of electrification in the world. Roughly 17 percent of the urban population and 2 percent of the rural population have access to electricity. Liberia experienced civil conflict from 1985-2003, which damaged 75 percent of the road and electrical infrastructure. Since 2003, Liberia has been working to rebuild its infrastructure.
In line with the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), Liberia is working to attain 70 percent electrification of the capital city and 35 percent of rural areas by 2030, but much remains to be done, particularly in rural regions.
The Republic of Niger (Niger) is a nation of nearly 21.5 million people in West Africa (Table ES-1). The population of Niger is predominantly rural and reliant on subsistence agriculture; 96 percent of the population is clustered in the southernmost regions of Dosso, Maradi, Tahoua, Tillabéri, and Zinder, which represent only 35 percent of the land area. This concentration is the result of the more hospitable climate of the southernmost regions and the proximity to Nigeria, a key economic partner.
Rwanda has made substantial progress towards its goal in energy access, moving from 6 percent on-grid access in 2000 to 37 percent on-grid access in 2019. Despite this impressive progress, the low starting point represents an opportunity for the off-grid sector to flourish. It has already reached 14 percent of the population. These numbers indicate that although other countries may have larger markets in terms of absolute size, the impacts of the off-grid sector within the overall energy sector are very high in Rwanda. The Government of Rwanda (GOR) has also shown its commitment to the off-grid sector by setting a target for 48 percent of the population to be served by an off-grid product by 2024.
To date, small solar home systems (SHSs), sold through a pay-as-you-go (PAYG) model, have dominated the off-grid sector, which is a situation similar to other markets in East Africa. However, according to results from the Fifth Integrated Household Living Conditions Survey (EICV5), the ability to pay is low in Rwanda. The survey shows that 75 percent of off-grid households spent less $1.67 per month on lighting and telephone charging. This constraint has been recognized by GOR, which is working with development partners to design a subsidy.
Senegal is home to one of West Africa''s leading off-grid power sectors. The country''s private-sector solar home system (SHS) companies have been at the forefront of adopting proven business models and technologies from East Africa, while also innovating through partnerships with microfinance institutions. Contributing to Senegal''s position as a regional leader are a relatively strong human resource pool and good transportation links to neighboring countries. Professionals in Senegal are experienced in business and have networks spanning the region.
At the same time, government policies, originally developed in the late 1990s, have provided an official framework for private development and financing of large-scale grid infrastructure, mini-grids, and standalone power systems. Although this framework has not entirely delivered on expected results, it has helped to attract large quantities of donor finance.
Tanzania is the sixth most populous country in sub-Saharan Africa. It connects six land-locked countries to the Indian Ocean and has deep natural gas reserves, and there are many opportunities for investment.
Tanzania has abundant and world-class wind and solar resources. The Government of Tanzania (GOT) has committed to reform the operations of the Tanzania Electric Supply Company Ltd. (TANESCO, the national utility) and meet new demand through low-cost solutions.
High reliance on expensive thermal and emergency generation sources have helped make the sector financially unviable. The following statistics provide insight into the Tanzanian country context:
Uganda is a landlocked country in East Africa, with a gross domestic product worth $36 billion in 2020 and a projected growth-rate of 6.63 percent. Uganda''s population stands at 41 million, with 27 percent living in urban areas. Uganda has one of the youngest and most rapidly growing populations in the world: 54 percent of the population is younger than 18. The government of Uganda expects rapid population growth along with demand for jobs, housing, health, and energy, presenting great potential for renewable energy, particularly off-grid solar, to be adopted rapidly.
Sixty-eight percent of Ugandans work in agriculture. Trading employs 10.4 percent of the population and manufacturing four percent. Uganda is richly endowed with natural resources, including large deposits of crude oil, vast forests, large bodies of water, natural hot springs, precious minerals, and year-round sunshine, with the total renewable energy potential estimated at 5.3 GW, of which only 1,364.6 MW had been installed in 2021.
The main objective of Power Africa''s off-grid productive use of energy (PUE) catalogs is to increase awareness and uptake of off-grid PUE appliances available in the sub-Saharan African market for agriculture, fishing, livestock, and poultry. The catalogs provide stakeholders – including manufacturers, suppliers, non-government and community organizations, and government policymakers – with insight into PUE products and innovations.
Off-grid Clean Energy Financial Modeling Bootcamp Self-study Material & Videos
What will the off-grid energy landscape in sub-Saharan Africa look like in 2030?
Our foresight report looks toward the year 2030, investigating the opportunities for off-grid energy. Focusing on drivers of change and signals of innovation, the report explores potential futures for the intersection of off-grid power and:
The Financial Modeling Tool for Pay-as-you-go (PAYGO) Energy Access companies:
The Beyond the Grid Fund for Africa (BGFA) programme has signed an agreement with the off-grid energy service company Easy Solar Ltd to support the scale-up of high-quality solar home systems and appliances in the country.
Easy Solar is the fourth project to be contracted in Liberia by the BGFA programme. In total, the four contracted companies plan to establish up to some 94,000 off-grid energy connections by the end of 2026, providing energy access for people living in rural and peri-urban areas in the country.
"We are very happy to sign our fourth project in Liberia with Easy Solar to support their scale-up in the country. With this project, BGFA can provide energy access up to some 470,000 people living in remote communities in Liberia," commented Kari Hämekoski, Senior Programme Manager at Nefco.
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