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In more mature global automotive markets, widespread EV penetration has depended on a confluence of factors. In the shift from ICE to EV, government support, original equipment manufacturer (OEM) investments, ecosystem build-out, relative vehicle cost competitiveness and performance, and consumer acceptance must marry to create a meaningful inflection point. The Indian automotive market is seeing many of these factors converge and is poised for rapid EV growth thanks to sustained stakeholder investments and efforts over the past few years.
Central and state governments are offering meaningful incentives to consumers to adopt EVs and suppliers to propel local manufacturing and ecosystem build-out.
From a total cost of ownership (TCO) perspective, EVs are already competitive, even at today’s pricing levels. Today’s leading 2W EVs have TCO that is up to 40% lower than comparable ICE models when used more than 40 kilometres a day. While TCO competitiveness is currently lower for electric 4W vehicles, high daily usage cases like ride-hailing and fleets are already seeing TCO advantages, and this is only improving.
Cross-segment OEMs have started to take significant steps towards building an EV product slate for the Indian market and setting up the enabling ecosystem (charging and dealership networks, financing) to serve the market, often via partnerships with other players across the ecosystem.
We have seen the most action on the 2W and three-wheel (3W) product front where, in addition to ambitious EV plans from domestic automotive incumbents like TVS and Bajaj, we have seen the emergence of a whole host of new EV OEMs, such as Ather, Ola, Ampere, Okinawa, and Hero Electric.
Most major PV and commercial vehicle (CV) OEMs operating in India have also made preliminary market product introductions and have announced full EV product launch slates across the next few years. Domestic champions like Tata Motors and Mahindra are building an extensive EV portfolio for the Indian market, and global players like Hyundai and Mercedes are bringing their global EV platforms into India.
There has been a slew of recent investments into building out an enabling ecosystem in India to drive mass adoption. This includes localised manufacturing and battery assembly, battery management systems (BMS), software and telematics, and components. There is also an emergence of charging infrastructure, mobility services, and platforms to meet end consumer needs.
An increasing number of Indian customers are willing to buy EVs, according to a survey conducted by CarDekho and Omnicom Media Group last year. The survey found that 66% of customers are willing to buy EVs, and 68% showed environmental concern—they believe switching to EVs will help reduce air pollution. Corporate customers, especially in the e-commerce and logistics sectors, are also setting ambitious targets for electrifying their delivery fleets and reducing their overall carbon footprint. For example, both Flipkart and Zomato have pledged a 100% transition to EVs by 2030.
These factors are leading to an inflection point for EV adoption in India—EV sales have accelerated significantly in the past year (albeit of a small base) and are likely to continue unabated. Our analysis indicates that 35%–40% of all vehicles sold in India by 2030 will be EVs (see Figure 1), up from 2% in 2022. This will equate to approximately 14 million to 16 million new EVs sold each year.
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Mr Bean knows his cars. So, when Rowan Atkinson, a student of electronics engineering and self-confessed car nut (he once featured in Top Gear''s ''Star in a Reasonably Priced Car'' segment) wrote a provocative piece in The Guardian titled, ''I love electric vehicles — and was an early adopter, but increasingly feel duped'', it set off a slugfest between the petrolheads and EV evangelists.
"Electric cars, of course, have zero exhaust emissionsbut if you zoom out a bit and look at a bigger picture that includes the car''s manufacture, the situation is very different," Atkinson wrote, calling Europe''s EV push as "not capitalism, but a collusion” among the state, manufacturers, and the mining companies sitting behind the "EV dream".
Atkinson has, in a way, said the quiet part out loud about the problem with countries simply copying Norway''s template on a successful EV model. It could be of particular relevance to India, as the central and state governments chart the path to a net zero emissions future.
Currently, the Centre offers clear tax incentives for primarily one category of cars, with practically all other vehicular technological platforms clubbed together towards the upper end of the tax bracket. India''s electric mobility plan is largely focussed on battery electric vehicles (BEVs) replacing internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles, with Li-ion seen as the most viable battery option for now. The EVs that qualify for a clear upfront tax incentive are the ones referred to as BEVs — the category of cars that Atkinson primarily targets.
UPFRONT SUBSIDY: The BEV experience across markets from Norway to the US and China shows the electric push works only if it is backed by state subsidies. An elaborate system of incentives is central to Norway''s EV policy, which has fostered the world''s most advanced EV market. The government waives the high taxes it imposes on sales of non-electrics, it lets electric cars run in bus lanes, toll roads are free for them, and parking lots offer a free charge.
The problem with this overt subsidisation of EVs, especially in the context of developing nations like India, is that much of the subsidy, especially the one offered as tax breaks for cars, ends up in the hands of the middle or upper middle classes, who are typically the buyers of battery electric four-wheelers.
CHARGING NETWORK: A World Bank analysis found that investing in charging infrastructure is 4-7 times more effective in EV adoption than providing upfront purchase subsidies. Norway and China have seen faster EV adoption through sustained efforts at expanding the public charging infrastructure, while also offering purchase subsidies. China, the leader in the number of publicly available chargers, accounts for 85% of global fast chargers and 55% slow chargers.
In India, the number of EVs had crossed 1 million by mid-2022, and will likely grow to 45-50 million by 2030. But only about 2,000 public charging stations are currently operational across the country.
Also, India''s charging infrastructure demands, according to KPMG''s ''Electric vehicle charging — the next big opportunity'' report, are unique, because the vehicle mix is dominated by two- and three-wheelers. The charging network strategy has to be tweaked, given that the power requirement varies — 2Ws and 3Ws have small, low voltage batteries for which normal AC power charging is adequate, while 4Ws have varied battery sizes and use different charging standards.
Single-phase AC chargers are suitable for cars with single-phase onboard chargers, while three-phase AC chargers are required for cars with larger onboard chargers. Buses, on the other hand, have large batteries and high power requirements, which makes DC fast charging the most suitable.
Most e-2W and 3W models in India are suited to slow charging, and battery-swapping is emerging as an alternative for cases where fast charging is required.
ELECTRICITY SOURCE: In several countries that have pushed EVs, much of the electricity is generated from renewables — Norway has 99% hydroelectric power. In India, the grid is still fed largely by coal-fired thermal plants.
Unless the generation mix changes significantly, India would be using fossil fuel generation to power EVs. Theoretically at least, this would mean reduced tailpipe emissions in the cities, but continuing pollution from the running of the thermal plant. There is the advantage of substitution of oil imports, though.
VALUE CHAIN: As India struggles to make inroads into the global lithium value chain, there is discussion on the need to diversify the country''s dependency on Li-ion batteries in the EV mix. The demand for Li-ion batteries from India is projected to grow at a CAGR of more than 30% by volume up to 2030, which translates to more than 50,000 tonnes of lithium requirement for the country to manufacture EV batteries alone.
But more than 90% of the global Li production is concentrated in Chile, Argentina, and Bolivia alongside Australia and China, and other key inputs such as cobalt and nickel are mined in the Congo and Indonesia — India would, therefore, be almost entirely dependent on imports from a small pool of countries to cater to its demand. While other options to Li-ion are being explored, viability remains a key factor.
China is miles ahead of the rest of the world, with a strong base in the entire sourcing chain, and with industry leaders such as battery makers CATL and BYD, and carmakers such as Nio, Li Auto, and XPENG Motors.
There is a larger argument against the government picking winners based on a preferred technology. There is no denying that Li-ion has been a runaway success at the lower end of India''s EV segments, with 2Ws and 3Ws seeing a sharp surge. But the same cannot be said of the four-wheeler segment, although there is promise. What needs to be noted is that globally, the EV definition covers, besides BEVs, Hybrid Electric Vehicles, Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles, and Fuel Cell Vehicles.
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