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The Global EV Outlook is an annual publication that identifies and discusses recent developments in electric mobility across the globe. It is developed with the support of the members of the Electric Vehicles Initiative (EVI). Combining historical analysis with projections to 2030, the report examines key areas of interest such as electric vehicle and charging infrastructure deployment, ownership cost, energy use, carbon dioxide emissions and battery material demand.
The global electric car stock, primarily composed of Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs) and Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEVs), surpassed 2 million units in 2016. This is up 60% from 2015, indicating rapid market evolution. Electric Vehicles (EVs) have the capacity to increase energy efficiency, diversify transport energy carriers, and play a role in the sector's carbon emissions mitigation. BEVs and PHEVs are also well equipped to reduce emissions of local pollutants and noise levels in high-exposure areas such as urban environments.
The increase in electric car sales varied across regions and powertrains, but remains dominated by the People''s Republic of China (hereafter "China"). In 2022, BEV sales in China increased by 60% relative to 2021 to reach 4.4million, and PHEV sales nearly tripled to 1.5million. The faster growth in PHEV sales relative to BEVs warrants further examination in the coming years, as PHEV sales still remain lower overall and could be catching up on the post-Covid-19 boom only now; BEV sales in China tripled from 2020 to 2021 after moderate growth over 2018-2020. Electric car sales increased even while total car sales dipped by 3% in 2022 relative to 2021.
China accounted for nearly 60% of all new electric car registrations globally. For the first time in 2022, China accounted for more than 50% of all the electric cars on the world''s roads, a total of 13.8million. This strong growth results from more than a decade of sustained policy support for early adopters, including an extension of purchase incentives initially planned for phase-out in 2020 to the end of 2022 due to Covid-19, in addition to non-financial support such as rapid roll-out of charging infrastructure and stringent registration policies for non-electric cars.
Support at the regional level in China has also helped to advance some of the world''s largest EV makers. Shenzhen-based BYD has supplied most of the city''s electric buses and taxis, and its leading position is also reflected in Shenzhen''s ambition of reaching a 60% NEV sales share by 2025. Guangzhou, which has a 50% NEV sales share by 2025 target, facilitated the expansion of Xpeng Motors to become one of the national EV frontrunners.
Whether China''s electric car sales share will remain significantly above the 20% target in 2023 remains uncertain, as sales may have been especially high in anticipation of incentives being phased out at the end of 2022. Sales in January 2023 plunged, and while this is in part due to the timing of the Chinese New Year, they were nearly 10% lower than sales in January 2022. However, electric car sales caught up in February and March 2023, standing nearly 60% above sales in February 2022 and more than 25% above sales in March 2022, thereby bringing sales in the first quarter of 2023 more than 20% higher than in the first quarter of 2022.
In Europe,4 electric car sales increased by more than 15% in 2022 relative to 2021 to reach 2.7million. Sales grew more quickly in previous years: annual growth stood at more than 65% in 2021 and averaged 40% over 2017-2019. In 2022, BEV sales rose by 30% relative to 2021 (compared to 65% growth in 2021 relative to 2020) while PHEV sales dipped by around 3%. Europe accounted for 10% of global growth in new electric car sales. Despite slower growth in 2022, electric car sales are still increasing in Europe in the context of continued contraction in car markets: total car sales in Europe dipped by 3% in 2022 relative to 2021.
The slowdown seen in Europe relative to previous years was, in part, a reflection of the exceptional growth in electric car sales that took place in 2020 and 2021 in the European Union, as manufacturers quickly adjusted corporate strategy to comply with the CO2 emission standards passed in 2019. These standards covered the 2020-2024 period, with EU-wide emission targets becoming stricter only from 2025 and 2030 onwards.
High energy prices in 2022 had a mixed impact on the competitiveness of EVs relative to internal combustion engine (ICE) cars. Gasoline and diesel prices for ICE cars spiked, but residential electricity tariffs (with relevance for charging) also increased in some cases. Higher electricity and gas prices also increased manufacturing costs for both ICE and EV cars, with some carmakers arguing that high energy prices could restrict future investment for new battery manufacturing capacity.
Sales are expected to continue increasing in Europe, especially following recent policy developments under the ''Fit for 55'' package. New rules set stricter CO2 emission standards for 2030-2034 and target a 100% reduction in CO2 emissions for new cars and vans from 2035 relative to 2021 levels. In the nearer term, an incentive mechanism operating between 2025 and 2029 will reward manufacturers that achieve a 25% car sales share of zero- and low-emission cars (17% for vans). In the first two months of 2023, battery electric car sales were already up by over 30% year-on-year, while overall car sales increased by just over 10% year-on-year.
In the immediate term, the IRA has constrained eligibility requirements for purchase incentives, as vehicles need to be produced in North America in order to qualify for a subsidy. However, electric car sales have remained strong since August 2022, and the first months of 2023 have been no exception: In the first quarter of 2023, electric car sales increased 60% compared to the same period in 2022, potentially boosted by the January 2023 removal of the subsidy caps for manufacturers, which means models by market leaders can now benefit from purchase incentives. In the longer-term, the list of models eligible for subsidies is expected to expand.
Early indications from first quarter sales of 2023 point to an upbeat market, supported by cost declines as well as strengthened policy support in key markets such as the United States. Globally, our current estimate is therefore for nearly 14million electric cars to be sold in 2023, building on the more than 2.3million already sold in the first quarter of the year. This represents a 35% increase in electric car sales in 2023 compared to 2022 and would bring the global electric sales share to around 18%, up from 14% in 2022.
Electric car sales in the first three months of 2023 have shown strong signs of growth compared to the same period in 2022. In the United States, more than 320000 electric cars were sold in the first quarter of 2023, 60% more than over the same period in 2022. Our current expectation is for this growth to be sustained throughout the year, with electric car sales reaching over 1.5million in 2023, bringing the electric car sales share in the United States up to around 12% in 2023.
In China, electric car sales were off to a rough start in 2023, with January sales being 8% lower than in January 2022. The latest available data suggests a quick recovery: over the entire first quarter of 2023, electric car sales in China were more than 20% higher than in the first quarter of 2022, with more than 1.3million electric cars being registered. For the remainder of 2023, we expect the generally favourable cost structure of electric cars to outweigh the effects of the phase-out of the NEV subsidy. As a result, our current expectation is for electric car sales in China to be more than 30% higher than in 2022 and reach around 8million by the end of 2023, reaching a sales share of over 35% (from 29% in 2022).
Based on recent trends and tightening CO2 targets not going into effect until 2025, the growth of electric car sales in Europe is expected to be the lowest of the three largest markets. In the first quarter of 2023, electric car sales in Europe increased by around 10% compared to the same period in 2022. For the full year, we currently expect electric car sales to increase by over 25%, with one-in-four cars sold in Europe being electric.
There are, of course, downside risks to the 2023 outlook: a sluggish global economy and the phase-out of subsidies for NEVs in China could reduce 2023 growth in global electric car sales. On the upside, new markets may open up more quickly than anticipated, as persistent high oil prices make the case for EVs stronger in an increasing number of settings. And new policy developments, such as the April 2023 proposal from the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to strengthen GHG emissions standards for cars, may send signals that boost sales even before going into effect.
The race to electrification is increasing the number of electric car models available on the market. In 2022, the number of available options reached 500, up from below 450 in 2021 and more than doubling relative to 2018-2019. As in previous years, China has the broadest portfolio with nearly 300available models, double the number available in 2018-2019, prior to the Covid-19 pandemic. This remains nearly twice as many as in Norway, the Netherlands, Germany, Sweden, France and the United Kingdom, which all have around 150models available, more than three times as many as before the pandemic. In the United States, there were fewer than 100models available in 2022, but twice as many as before the pandemic; and 30 or fewer were available in Canada, Japan and Korea.
A major concern for global car markets – both EV and ICE – is the overwhelming dominance of SUVs and large models among available options. Carmakers are able to generate higher revenues from such models, given higher profit margins, which can cover some of the investments made in developing electric options. In certain cases, such as in the UnitedStates, larger vehicles can also benefit from less stringent fuel economy standards, hence creating an incentive for carmakers to slightly increase the vehicle size of a car for it to qualify as a light truck.
However, large models are more expensive, which poses significant affordability issues across the board, and all the more so in EMDEs. Large models also have implications for sustainability and supply chains, being equipped with larger batteries that require more critical minerals. In 2022, the sales-weighted average battery size of small battery electric cars ranged from 25kWh in China to 35kWh across France, Germany and the UnitedKingdom, and about 60kWh in the UnitedStates. In comparison, the average for battery electric SUVs was around 70-75kWh in these countries, and within the 75-90kWh range for large car models.
Transitioning from ICE to electric is a priority for achieving net zero emissions targets, regardless of vehicle size, but mitigating the impacts of higher battery sizes will also be important. In France, Germany and the UnitedKingdom in 2022, the sales-weighted average weight of a battery electric SUV was 1.5 times higher than the average small battery electric car, requiring greater amounts of steel, aluminium and plastic; the battery in the SUV was twice as large, requiring about 75% more critical minerals. The CO2 emissions associated with materials processing, manufacturing and assembly can be estimated at more than 70% higher as a result.
At the same time, in 2022, electric SUVs resulted in the displacement of over 150000 barrels per day of oil consumption and avoided the associated tailpipe emissions that would have been generated through burning the fuel in combustion engines. Although electric SUVs represented roughly 35% of all electric passenger light-duty vehicles (PLDVs) in 2022, their share of oil displacement was even higher (about 40%), as SUVs tend to be driven more than smaller cars. Of course, smaller vehicles generally require less energy to operate and less materials to build, but electric SUVs certainly remain favourable to ICE vehicles.
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