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The share of fossil fuel consumption in different sectors of Iran''s industries40,41.
It can be inferred that by increasing the capacity of power generation in Iran, the potential for further application can be investigated while various consumers can be introduced. Therefore, besides the household and industrial applications of surplus electricity production, EVs can seek more benefits through this upward trend. It should be noted that regarding the expected numbers of EVs, additional advancements in electricity power generation would be required. Based on the latest statistics, Iran produces around 1 million cars per year while only 1% of the delivered vehicles are powered by electrical power38,39. Hence, a potent potential for electrification in Iran''s vehicle industry can be found that can be fulfilled through a comprehensive program on the national scale.
The number of car production based on the different types in last years43,44,45.
The price of gasoline over 20 years42.
It should be noted that Iran is one of the greatest carbon producers in the world (by total emission and per capita). In this case, a transition to electrification can prevent greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from being released into the environment. In this case, the environmental benefits of using vehicles without emissions can be considered. Through this process, the benefits will be doubled as the contribution of the transportation system to GHG emission is presented in Fig. 4.
CO2 emission in Iran by different sectors46.
To assess the technical and economic influences of the electrification transitions in the transportation system in Iran, a comparative investigation is intended to be put forward. The chief aim of this assessment is to estimate the possible benefits of the replacement of fossil fuels-based vehicles with EVs. In this way, two sections of the technical and economic analyses can be conducted. To investigate the effective aspects of electrification in Iran, a comprehensive comparison is required to measure the performance of the intended scheme. In this case, the PROMETHEE method is taken into consideration.
It should be noted that being straightforward and simple, having high potential for flexibility, no necessity to normalize, and visual illustration are the main plus points of this technique while requiring the weights assignments, difficulty in large problems, and being highly reliant on the preferences and judgments of the decision makers are categorized as the undesirable features of this method48. Figure 5 represents the flowchart of the PROMETHEE technique.
PROMETHEE technique flowchart.
The prioritization function pj (a, b), represented as a tool of the alteration amid two substitutes for involved standards, can be determined distinctly for all criteria to denote one alternative extent of desire to other quantitates. This formula is indicated as pj (f(a), f(b)) where its value is constantly from 0 to 149.
The lesser the function is, the superior the insignificance of the decision-makers would be also closer to 1, more fondness is expected. Accordingly, the function of related favorite P(a, b) of ''a'' relating to ''b'' can be signified as follows:
As illustrated, the most preferred function is 1 and the non-preferred function has a value equal to 0.
For the preferred functions to cover the preferential applications various shapes can be proposed e.g., linear, Gaussian, U-shape, and V-shape. Based on the form of the selected function, indifference threshold (q) and preference threshold (p) can be selected.
The departure streams of an alternative (a) illustrate the inclination level for the mentioned alternative holds more appeals compared to others. The greater the departure streams become; the superior alternative will be. The incoming flows of alternatives (a) indicate the level of proficiency in comparison with other alternatives. The smaller values of departure streams are the improved alternatives. The obtained outranking streams can be computed49:
The ultimate preference of the obtained results on the calculated net flow is more promising.
By considering the stated background on fossil fuel resources and the intended perspective on the future of the fuel of the vehicles, various alternatives can be taken into consideration. For this determination, the confirmed substitute fuels.
It should be stated that policy plays a significant role in the considered decision-making process. The announcement of the framework of the standardized case, risk management, conventional alignment, strategies paths, available resources, and required guidance are the main concerns in the involvement of policy as a strong factor in the decision-making process. In a structured method, this factor can contain important parameters.
Technological advancements are a promising approach from a technical point of view. To assess the effects of the latest developments, a comparative investigation of the pros and cons of modern technologies respecting the typical and traditional facilities should be conducted. To get ahead in accomplishing the large-scale adjustment in this trend, the scientifically driven methods must be conducted by economic motivations and maintained by potent strategies. In this case, three sub-divisions can be taken to expand the area of investigation to deliver the advanced outcomes of the survey. In this case, infrastructure availability, energy content, and safety are the most important topics from a technical point of view.
The absence of appropriate infrastructure is a problem for the development of numerous novel technologies in the transportation division. To reduce the GHG releases to the environment, the infrastructure that provides these novel energy resources would be required to develop to deliver a great amount of energy to various users. An upgraded classification of the infrastructure obtainability for instance manufacturing technologies and refilling units would deliver the main influence on the upcoming efforts to commercialize the different types of energies50. From the professional point of view, by considering the energy content, the superiorities of each introduced energy source as well as the advantages and drawbacks of the battery-powered systems can be observed53.
One more point which believed to be pivotal is the fact that safety has been defined as one of the influential parameters in the technical criteria that play an unbreakable part in this area of expertise. To elaborate on this specific parameter, it should be mentioned that hazards and possible risks associated with the health and environment can be taken into consideration for further evaluation.
Important concerns based on the social subjects can be addressed in this section. To be more precise, it is vital to mention the intended sub-categorizes as social acceptance and social welfare which are believed to be two potent symbols of social-related matters. One of the main downsides of the transportation systems is the GHG emissions to the environment which pulls the triggers for climate change, health problems, etc. that leads to social dissatisfaction. Initial statistics e.g., expert views, public attitudes, and insights are comprised of the planning and decision-making procedure in modern civilizations. Other points related to social acceptance can be introduced through the fees of fuel variations or imposed taxes over time which can be greatly effective54.
To present the initial data more concisely, Table 1 provides the initial parameters to start the decision-making process. In this case, both measurable and immeasurable statistics have been considered in the assessment strategy. The entire data has been established regarding the evaluations by skilled scientists. Entire data for the alternatives are presented in Table 1. The criteria employed in this research encompass both quantitative and qualitative data. Professional experts have assessed and provided all the criteria data used in the evaluation approach. The performance values are stated by the professionals in that field by surveying.
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